Week 12 Upset Predictions: A Bold Look at five potential shocks in 2025
Week 12 in the 2025 college football schedule brings a slate ripe for upsets. After a season of close games and surprising twists, several underdogs stand out as potential disruptors. Below are five upset picks for Week 12, with the reasoning, key matchups to watch, and betting angles you can consider as the landscape shifts toward conference races and bowl eligibility.
1) [Underdog] over [Favorite]: A trench-war battle may tilt late
Historical trends in Week 12 often favor disciplined, run-heavy teams that can control the clock against more dynamic but high-variance offenses. This matchup features a defensive-minded underdog facing a spread-driven opponent that might underestimate the physicality of the opponent’s front seven. If the underdog can win the time of possession battle and force a turnover or two, they have a real shot to pull off the upset at home. Look for edge players who can disrupt the quarterback’s timing and a running back who can grind out crucial first downs in the fourth quarter.
2) [Underdog] over [Favorite]: Special teams and field position could swing the game
Week 12 often rewards teams that win the kicking game. An underdog with a strong return game and a reliable placekicker can flip field position and create short-field opportunities, especially in chilly late-season weather. If the favorite has struggled with penalties or a recent miscue in punt coverage, this could be the opening the underdog needs to stay within striking distance or steal a late lead. Pay attention to weather reports and the teams’ efficiency in third-down conversion, which often decides these close contests.
3) [Underdog] over [Favorite]: Quarterback mobility could be the deciding factor
Mobility at the quarterback position can neutralize a formidable pass rush and open up improvisational plays that disrupt a defensive plan. If the underdog features a quarterback who can extend plays and execute designed runs in red-zone situations, they can create explosive plays that swing momentum. Conversely, the favorite’s defense must account for breaking pressure to avoid a costly interception. This game could hinge on a couple of big plays in the secondary and a run-pass option (RPO) package that keeps the defense guessing.
4) [Underdog] over [Favorite]: Home-field advantage matters more in Week 12
Home crowds in late November can lift a team that relies on energy and momentum. An underdog with a strong home record and a balanced attack—ground game and timely passing—can ride that advantage to a victory that defies the spread. Look for the underdog to execute a productive opening drive and sustain the tempo with limiters in place for the favorite’s blitz packages. A tight first half could set the stage for a decisive second half.
5) [Underdog] over [Favorite]: Turnover margin and red-zone efficiency could seal it
The final upset pick centers on discipline and opportunism. The underdog that wins the turnover margin and converts red-zone trips into points is well-positioned to pull an upset. This game may feature a methodical, clock-management approach from the underdog complemented by a few key defensive stops. If the favorite commits penalties or misreads a blitz, the underdog can capitalize and steal a late win.
What to watch this Week 12
Beyond the five picks, consider these angles to assess Week 12 upsets: home-field impact in late-season games, weather conditions that favor running teams, and any coaching adjustments after midseason tape has evolved. Track injury reports on impact players and monitor line movements across sportsbooks, as these often signal sharper action on underdogs.
Final thoughts
Upsets in Week 12 of the 2025 season aren’t guaranteed, but history suggests a few underdogs with the right mix of defense, special teams, and quarterback play can shock the favorites. Use these ideas as a framework for your bets, and stay agile as late-week developments unfold.
