Forecast: LPA may enter PAR and become a tropical depression
A low pressure area (LPA) off Eastern Visayas is likely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) within the day, according to the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa). Weather specialist Loriedin Dela Cruz-Galicia noted that the disturbance could intensify into a tropical depression within the next 24 to 36 hours. If it indeed strengthens, Pagasa said the system would be named Ramil, projected to be the 18th tropical cyclone to affect the country this year.
Pagasa’s forecast indicates the LPA might make landfall between Cagayan and Isabela. Before landfall, the storm is expected to pass over the Bicol Region, bringing increasing winds and rain chances to nearby areas. Forecasters emphasize that while landfall is not yet certain, residents in 見northern Luzon and adjacent regions should monitor updates as paths can shift with changing atmospheric conditions.
Impacts: Rainy easterlies across large parts of Luzon and Visayas
Even before any potential landfall, Pagasa warned that the easterly winds, driven by warm air and moisture from the Pacific Ocean, would blanket many parts of the country with cloudy skies and scattered rains. Metro Manila, the Visayas, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon), Mimaropa (Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan), the Bicol Region, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, and Bulacan can expect showers and thunderstorms. Residents should be prepared for localized downpours that could lead to minor flooding in low-lying areas and poor drainage sites.
The northeasterly wind flow continues to affect the northern portion of the country, including Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte, where skies range from partly cloudy to overcast with isolated light rains. Meanwhile, other parts of Luzon might experience partly cloudy to cloudy conditions with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms as the easterlies persist over the Pacific and funnel moisture toward the landmass.
In Mindanao, a similar weather regime is expected, but the rains are typically more localized due to thunderstorm activity rather than a broad-scale weather system. The combination of easterly winds and local convection can still cause sudden downpours and gusty winds in exposed areas.
Evolving situation: What residents should know
With the LPA potentially intensifying into a tropical depression and moving toward or across northern Luzon, affected communities should monitor official advisories from Pagasa. Early preparation remains key: secure outdoor items, check drainage and flood-prone zones, and have an emergency kit ready in case heavy rain or strong winds disrupt daily activities.
Officials reiterate that the exact track and intensity depend on atmospheric interactions that can still change. While uncertainty remains, the most plausible scenario over the next 24 to 48 hours involves the disturbance traversing the eastern side of Luzon, bringing rain-bearing easterlies to large swaths of the region and to Metro Manila and its neighboring provinces. Local government units may issue rainfall advisories or flood warnings if rainfall intensity increases or if river levels rise rapidly.
<h2 Practical tips for households and travelers
• Check Pagasa’s advisories regularly for updates on track and intensity.
• Be prepared for sudden downpours; keep vehicles powered and avoid driving through flood-prone streets during heavy rain.
• If you live near rivers or drainage channels, clear debris from drainage systems to reduce flooding risk.
• For commuters in Metro Manila and neighboring areas, plan for possible traffic disruptions or rain-induced delays and carry rain gear and portable chargers.
Bottom line
The upcoming days could bring a notable change in weather across the Philippines, with an LPA potentially entering PAR and triggering widespread rains via easterly winds. While it may be a while before a confirmed tropical cyclone forms, residents across Metro Manila, Visayas, Luzon’s central and southern corridors, and Mindanao should stay informed and prepared for wet weather and possible localized flooding.
