Australia’s baby recession deepens with record-low fertility
The latest release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) confirms that Australia’s fertility rate has fallen to a record low, underscoring a long-running demographic trend that experts say will reshape the country’s future in several tangible ways. In 2024, the total fertility rate stood at 1.48 babies per woman, down from 2023, marking another step in a decline that has persisted for decades and is now well below the replacement level of about 2.1.
Beyond the numbers, the data highlight how Australians are starting families later. The median age for mothers in 2024 was 32.1 years, while fathers’ median age rose to 33.9 years. Beidar Cho, the ABS head of demography, noted that these shifts reflect a convergence of trends, including higher educational attainment and greater workforce participation among women. Over the past decade, mothers have aged by 1.2 years on average, and fathers by 0.9 years, signaling a broad societal shift toward later life parenting.
Why the drop matters: implications for society and the economy
Low fertility rates are not just a statistic; they carry implications for population growth, labour supply, and long-term economic dynamics. Demographers warn that if the trend continues, Australia could face slower population growth and an ageing society, with potential pressure on healthcare, pensions, and public services as the ratio of dependents to working-age adults grows.
Dr Liz Allen, an Australian National University demographer, cautions that the downward trend is not solely about “free choice.” Surveys show that intended family size often exceeds what people can actually achieve, indicating structural barriers that harden the cost of starting a family. “Total fertility rates are not a problem in their own right. If it’s an indication of choice and empowerment, then who are we to say it’s bad?” she asks. The barriers identified by Dr Allen center on housing affordability, economic security, gender inequality, and climate-related concerns—factors governments have been slow to address.
Housing, costs, and the urban squeeze
Housing remains a central puzzle. In major cities like Sydney and Melbourne, families seeking affordable housing to establish a family are increasingly pushed to the city’s fringes or into expensive outer zones. Dr Allen notes that fertility rates tend to be lower inside major urban cores where housing is costlier, suggesting that the urban housing crisis directly suppresses childbearing opportunities for many households.
The ABS projects a somber milestone if current trajectories hold: by the mid-2050s, deaths could outnumber local births in Australia. While this projection may seem distant, it underscores the urgency for policies that align housing, child care, and workplace supports with families’ real-life constraints.
Real voices from the front line: people choosing not to start families yet
For Australians like Cassie Tweddle, a 33-year-old hairdresser, the decision not to start a family is intertwined with market realities: renting, paying for childcare, and the challenge of affording a bigger home. “We are not having kids because nowadays you have to choose one thing. You can’t afford to buy a house, commute to work and pay for childcare,” she says, illustrating how financial pressures shape life choices even among those who want children.
Policy gaps and the path forward
Policy makers are navigating a complex landscape where higher education, female labor participation, and family planning intersect with housing markets and childcare affordability. Some positive steps are on the horizon, including increased Medicare rebates for assisted reproductive technology (ART) for LGBTIQ+ couples and single people. However, experts argue that broader reforms—such as affordable housing, robust childcare support, and gender equity improvements—are needed to align policy with the lived realities of Australian families.
What other countries’ responses tell us
International case studies show varied strategies to counter declining birth rates—from subsidies and housing incentives to targeted family support programs. While Australia debates its own approach, policymakers will likely weigh lessons from peers that also grapple with aging populations and the cost of raising children in a high-cost environment.
Bottom line
Australia’s fertility rate drop, rising parental ages, and the high cost of living are not isolated phenomena. They reflect a combination of economic pressures, housing affordability issues, and gender equality dynamics that require coordinated policy responses. As Australia confronts a future with fewer births, the focus must broaden to remove the barriers that curb family formation and to support those who choose to start or grow a family in today’s economic climate.
