Introduction: a storm that exposed data gaps
A powerful, deadly storm battered western Alaska over the weekend, and early analyses are pointing to a concrete culprit behind forecast surprises: a gaping hole in weather balloon coverage. The cuts that followed the Trump administration’s push to shrink government operations left the National Weather Service with fewer in-situ observations, complicating models that forecasted where and how hard the storm would hit.
Why weather balloons matter to forecasts
Weather balloons, launched twice daily, transmit vital measurements: wind speed and direction, air temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and other atmospheric data. These data feed directly into computer models, helping meteorologists project the storm’s path and intensity several days in advance. When balloon data is sparse, models have less information to anchor their projections, increasing the likelihood of forecast errors.
The Alaska gap and its consequences
In western Alaska, balloon coverage has been described as “a hole.” Kotzebue and St. Paul Island have no launches, while Bethel, King Salmon and Cold Bay average only one launch per day. Nome still maintains two launches, but communications issues have disrupted data transmission. Alaska’s forecast challenges are echoed elsewhere in the United States as the National Weather Service faces staff cuts and equipment constraints tied to federal efficiency measures.
Forecasts versus reality
Forecasts in the days leading up to the storm suggested a different landfall pattern than what occurred. Global models, including the NWS Global Forecast System (GFS), repeatedly indicated a stronger storm to the northwest of the landfall point actually observed. The communities that bore the brunt—often far from model consensus—struggled with floods, wind damage and storm surge in places not highlighted as high-risk zones days earlier.
Expert voices and the uncertainty of data-denied scenarios
Alaska meteorologists have long warned that western Alaska’s balloon gaps can ripple through forecasts at all scales. Rick Thoman of the University of Alaska Fairbanks described the storm as a “nightmare scenario” for forecasters facing depleted balloon networks. He emphasized that the precise track and strength of a storm can dramatically alter impacts in any given location, and balloon data often helps narrow that variability.
Officials acknowledge that the missing data likely influenced model performance, though quantifying the exact effect remains challenging. A NOAA representative, requesting anonymity, said: “Not having balloons didn’t help,” and noted that other data sources, including Asia-based observational data, also contribute to forecasts as systems move from one region into North America. Still, the consensus is that balloon data gaps probably degraded the lead time and confidence of some predictions.
The broader context: data gaps beyond Alaska
Alaska is only part of a larger national picture. While the Lower 48 also experiences reduced balloon launches at times, the island of missing data in remote regions can lead to disproportionate forecasting challenges for storms changing course near the Arctic. The National Weather Service is actively hiring meteorologists and technicians to address service outages stemming from the broader “DOGE” era reductions in federal staffing, but gaps persist in several communities that rely on satellite and balloon-derived data for day-to-day forecasts.
Resilience and response
As rescues continue and shelters fill with displaced residents, forecasters warn that improving data coverage remains essential. A major part of improving resilience is restoring balloon launches in critical regions and ensuring reliable data transmission. In Alaska, responders on the ground—including Coast Guard personnel and local authorities—are adapting to harsh conditions, while forecasting centers work to close the data gaps that may have contributed to forecast surprises.
Conclusion: lessons for future storms
Whether the missing balloon data altered the storm’s predicted path by minutes or hours is a question that researchers may never fully answer. What is clear is that in western Alaska, forecasts were tested by a storm that struck with force and at a time when observational coverage was thinned. Strengthening observational networks—especially weather balloons in remote regions—will help future forecasts better reflect reality, reduce surprises, and improve protective actions for vulnerable communities.
