Background: How Madagascar reached a tipping point
Madagascar is grappling with a serious political and social crisis as mass protests spread from grievances over water and power shortages to deep concerns about corruption, governance, and basic public services. Since September 25, thousands have demonstrated in Antananarivo, calling for change and accountability from the government led by President Andry Rajoelina. The demonstrations quickly grew beyond economic complaints, reflecting broader frustration with elite leadership and a perceived widening gap between rulers and the people.
The turning point: CAPSAT, public sentiment, and a fractured security landscape
One of the pivotal developments in recent days was the loss of support from CAPSAT, an elite military unit that had helped Mr. Rajoelina seize power in 2009. In a dramatic shift, CAPSAT joined demonstrators in the capital’s main square, escorting thousands and signaling a possible reweighting of military loyalty. The unit later announced it would take charge of the military and appointed a new army chief, a move that intensified the government’s vulnerability and prompted the president to warn of threats to constitutional order.
President’s flight: A dramatic exit and the international implications
According to sources close to the matter, President Andry Rajoelina fled Madagascar by a French military aircraft on Sunday. A security official described a rapid transfer: the aircraft landed at Sainte Marie airport, a helicopter transported the president, and he was moved to a secure location away from the country. The president’s office did not respond to requests for comment. In a late-night Facebook address, Mr. Rajoelina asserted that he had relocated to protect his life and insisted he would not permit Madagascar to be destroyed, while not disclosing his whereabouts. These statements underscore a defiant stance amid mounting calls for his resignation.
International voices and regional concerns
France acknowledged the situation but avoided confirmation of assistance, a dynamic that complicates Madagascar’s constitutional crisis. French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking in Egypt after a Gaza-related summit, said France understood the grievances of Madagascar’s youth but cautioned against letting military factions exploit those concerns. The evolving crisis raises questions about regional stability, the role of external actors, and how constitutional order might be preserved as political dialogue resumes.
Public sentiment on the streets
On the ground, protesters remain resolute. A hotel worker in Antananarivo, reflecting common economic pressures, described years of stagnation and rising discontent: “In 16 years the president and his government have done nothing except enrich themselves while the people stay poor.” The mood in major squares is organized and energetic, with demonstrations calling for accountability, transparent governance, and a return to constitutional norms.
What happens next: governance, security, and the path forward
With the presidency reportedly outside the country, questions about who leads the government, who commands the armed forces, and how a path to stability can be restored loom large. The United Nations has tallied fatalities in clashes, underscoring the human cost of the political crisis. As Madagascar navigates this fraught moment, actors inside and outside the country will be watching for steps toward dialogue, reform, and a credible process toward elections or a constitutional resolution.
Key takeaways for readers
- A leadership vacuum emerged as CAPSAT shifted loyalty to protesters and the public called for change.
- The president’s flight raises questions about constitutional continuity and succession mechanisms.
- International players are urging restraint and urging a return to lawful, inclusive governance.
