Overview: A Country in Turmoil
Madagascar is facing a critical political moment as President Andry Rajoelina reportedly fled the country amid deteriorating security and a loss of support from a key military unit. French state media cited reports that the president, who also holds French citizenship, left Antananarivo on a French military aircraft. The destination appeared to be Dubai, though the government has not officially confirmed the location.
The Immediate Trigger: Military Defection and Public Outcry
The president’s departure comes after a notable shift in loyalties within the security forces. A crucial army unit, known as Capsat, and other security personnel were seen interacting with thousands of demonstrators in the capital. Gen Z Madagascar activists, who had been a prominent force against perceived corruption and poverty, had earlier declined an invitation to dialogue and demanded Rajoelina’s resignation.
On the streets of Antananarivo, citizens gathered in front of city hall, waving flags and chanting slogans as military vehicles rolled through the square. The unfolding scene underscored a growing disconnect between the government and segments of the security apparatus that had previously supported Rajoelina during his rise to power in 2009 and his return to the presidency in 2023.
Key Players: Capsat, Gendarmes, and Civil Society
The Capsat unit, celebrated for its role in the 2009 coup that helped Rajoelina ascend to the presidency, has become a focal point in the current crisis. Alongside them, gendarmerie officers, who have faced scrutiny over heavy-handed tactics in recent protests, appeared to be at the center of the security equation. In a video statement, gendarmerie officials acknowledged faults and excesses in their response to ongoing demonstrations.
Protests have continued for more than two weeks, with a toll that local and international observers describe as high. The United Nations has reported at least 22 deaths in the clashes involving security forces and criminal violence. Rajoelina has disputed the casualty figures, claiming only 12 confirmed deaths that he characterized as looters and vandals. The discrepancy underscores the fragile trust between authorities and the public in this moment of upheaval.
<h2 A Nation at a Crossroads: What Comes Next?
With the president reportedly out of the country, Madagascar faces the challenge of maintaining constitutional order while responding to public demands for accountability, improved public services, and an end to corruption. The absence of a clear, immediate leadership direction risks a power vacuum that could complicate governance and security in the days ahead.
Analysts note that the current crisis did not arise from a single event but from a sequence of protests linked to chronic power and water outages and broader frustrations with governance. The arrest of two opposition politicians on September 19, which sparked fresh protests, is widely cited as a triggering moment in the latest escalation.
What to Watch For
- Possible shifts in military loyalty and the potential for talks among political factions.
- Responses from international partners, including France, and regional actors.
- Security developments in Antananarivo and major urban centers as authorities attempt to restore order.
- Any official statements outlining a roadmap for governance and elections.
Conclusion
As Madagascar navigates this transition, the role of the military, police, and civil society will be critical in shaping the trajectory of the country. The coming days will likely determine whether a political settlement can be forged that addresses public grievances while preserving stability and constitutional norms.
