Overview: A New Math for Bihar’s NDA
The Bihar election of 2025 is shaping up with a notable shift in the ruling NDA’s internal calculus. The BJP and JDU have agreed to contest an equal number of seats, a departure from the previous distribution that tilted toward the BJP and its allies. The change follows the entry of Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV), which has altered alliance dynamics and the overall seat math ahead of the two-phase vote.
How the Seat-Sharing Was Announced
According to a widely circulated post on X by JDU’s national working chief, Sanjay Kumar Jha, the NDA leaders and workers expressed unity in backing Nitish Kumar for another term as chief minister. The post framed the development as a collective victory for the NDA coalition, underscoring a desire for stability and a decisive mandate in Bihar’s political landscape.
The 243 Seats: The New Distribution
Under the revised arrangement, the NDA will distribute seats more evenly between its major constituents—namely the NDA partners in Bihar. The chart of reductions and equalization is a notable change: the JDU, which ran a high-profile campaign and previously held a large seat share, has seen its count adjusted to align with BJP’s. In 2020, the JDU contested 115 seats and the BJP 110. The 2025 plan reduces these gaps to a roughly equal split, signaling a strategic rebalancing within the alliance.
Chirag Paswan’s LJP (RV) plays a central role in this new balance. In 2020, the LJP (then undivided) contested a substantial 135 seats; the VIP contested 11 seats, and HAM(S) took seven. The entry of LJP (RV) into the NDA fold alters the expected sharing, as all three major national and regional players recalibrate their positions to maximize the alliance’s overall performance.
Why This Matters for Nitish Kumar and the NDA
For Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, this equal-seat approach could signal a broader strategy to consolidate support across diverse voter blocs. The change may help present a united NDA front in the face of a robust opposition, while allowing the party to leverage local strengths across constituencies. The real test will be identifying strong candidates who can convert local popularity into seat wins, particularly in regions where JD(U) and BJP have historically vied for influence.
Two-Phase Voting and the Opposition Landscape
Bihar will vote in two phases on November 6 and 11, with vote counting scheduled for November 14. The opposition INDIA bloc, led by the RJD and Congress, has not yet disclosed a formal sharing formula. The evolving NDA arrangement adds another layer of complexity to Bihar’s electoral arithmetic, as both sides navigate alliances, candidate selection, and local issues that drive voter sentiment.
Implications for Voters and Local Politics
For voters, the equal seat distribution within the NDA may translate into clearer, more balanced competition across districts. Local issues such as development, employment, law and order, and welfare schemes will continue to shape campaigns, but the new math could influence campaign strategies, candidate profiles, and constituency-level decisions. The participation of LJP (RV) could also widen the NDA’s appeal in areas where Chirag Paswan’s influence remains a deciding factor.
Looking Ahead
As Bihar moves toward the 2025 elections, both the NDA and the INDIA bloc will refine their seat strategies, candidate lists, and campaign narratives. The equal-sharing formula marks a significant shift in Bihar’s political equations, one that will unfold across campaigns, rallies, and local debates in the weeks leading to the voting days.
