Headlines from a revealing poll
A fresh Business Post/Red C poll suggests Independent candidate Catherine Connolly has established a substantial lead in the race for Áras an Uachtaráin, the Irish presidency. With support pegged at 36%, Connolly sits comfortably ahead of Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys, who stands at 25%. After the late withdrawal of Jim Gavin from the contest, his name remains on the ballot, drawing a notable 12% support in the survey.
Crucially, the poll shows a significant 27% of respondents who remain undecided. The margin of error for the study is +/- 3%, and the online survey polled 1,001 people between 2 and 7 October. The timing is notable because Gavin’s withdrawal occurred late on Sunday, 5 October, after the fieldwork had begun but before the polling closed.
Understanding the numbers
The results place Connolly in a commanding position, but the presence of a large undecided bloc means the race could still shift in the coming weeks. In elections where late decisions frequently consolidate around a preferred candidate, the undecideds could prove pivotal. pundits will be watching how campaigns respond to Gavin’s withdrawal and whether his remaining supporters shift to other candidates or remain split.
What this means for the candidates
Connolly’s lead reflects a strong signal from voters who may be seeking a candidate with an Independent track record and a distinct policy voice. Humphreys, representing Fine Gael, remains the principal challenger with a measurable third of the electorate, but she will need to convert undecided voters and mobilise her base to close the gap. The absence of Gavin from the field could reshape coalition-style calculations for voters who once considered him as their top pick.
Context and implications
Presidential polls often aren’t final until late in the campaign, but this snapshot provides a snapshot of the current dynamic. The Business Post/Red C survey follows a trend in recent polling that has sometimes favored independent candidates who speak to voter concerns about national direction, leadership style, and perceived independence from party machinery.
Campaign teams will be analysing respondents’ reasons for backing Connolly and Humphreys, as well as what drives undecideds to delay choosing. Factors such as policy priorities, visibility, and media engagement typically influence late-stage decision making, and campaign staff may adjust messages accordingly to capture lingering support before voting day.
Looking ahead
As the electorate heads toward voting day, the key question remains: can Connolly translate a steady lead into a durable victory, or will the undecided bloc tip the scales for another candidate? With Gavin’s withdrawal already shaping discussions around the ballot, the final result will hinge on ground games, endorsements, and the tone of each candidate’s outreach in the weeks ahead.
