Introduction: a unified, clear path to independence
The Scottish National Party (SNP) has endorsed leader John Swinney’s call for a “clear and unambiguous” strategy to secure a future independence referendum. On the opening day of the party’s annual conference in Aberdeen, members backed a motion insisting that the next May’s Holyrood elections should be fought on a straightforward platform of national independence. The motion argues that winning a majority in the Scottish Parliament — 65 seats or more — would be the sole uncontested pathway to delivering a new vote on Scotland’s future.
From fuzzy calls to a concrete electoral proposition
The party’s leadership frame marks a deliberate shift away from the idea that a de facto referendum could be triggered by a simple pro-independence plurality in future elections. An amendment proposing that the 2026 election itself could mandate independence negotiations if pro-independence parties win the most votes was defeated. That so-called de facto approach had been associated with Nicola Sturgeon’s earlier positions, which she later described as a misstep in her memoir.
In Aberdeen, Swinney emphasised the importance of clarity. He argued that a clear platform and a credible parliamentary mandate are essential to rebuilding trust with voters and reconciling the party’s aims with the realities of Holyrood’s proportional representation system. This emphasis on a transparent question and answer aligns the SNP with a broader strategy to convert soft yes supporters and independent-minded voters who drifted away in recent elections.
The 65-seat benchmark: why it matters
Under Scotland’s voting rules, achieving a stable, majority government in Holyrood is challenging. The SNP has only once secured a majority since devolution, in 2011 under Alex Salmond. The latest policy stance doubles down on the belief that a majority, rather than a plurality, is the legitimate and practical route to a new referendum. Supporters argue that a clear, unambiguous mandate reduces the risk of protracted referendums fought on mixed messages, while also providing a strong political signal to the public and to opponents in the wake of recent electoral shocks.
Party dynamics and the strategy’s reception
Key SNP figures echoed Swinney’s call for clarity. Depute leader Keith Brown defended the approach, saying, “The only way we can achieve independence is to ask a clear question and get a clear answer.” The conference reflected a broader reckoning within the party after a difficult general election that saw a rebranding of the party’s priorities and a renewed focus on core messaging to recapture a broad range of support.
Critics of the strategy warned that setting the 65-seat target could be high-risk, given the mechanics of Holyrood’s electoral system. However, supporters argue that a clearly defined objective helps align internal party discipline with public expectations and reduces the likelihood of muddled campaigning that previously alienated voters who are sympathetic to independence but wary of unclear tactics.
Public sentiment and potential electoral dynamics
Independence remains a dividing issue among voters, with many ranking other policy areas higher on their priority lists. Yet SNP strategists believe that even a modest shift back toward a “core message” focused on independence could win back ‘soft yes’ constituents who drifted away in recent years. The party’s polling frequently positions it ahead of Scottish Labour and Reform UK, though the political landscape remains volatile ahead of the next election cycle.
Looking ahead: what comes next for the SNP?
Keir Starmer’s stance at the UK level continues to influence SNP calculations. He has consistently indicated he would not grant Holyrood the power to call a second independence referendum. For the SNP, this reality reinforces the importance of winning a decisive majority as the most credible means to advance the independence agenda within the current constitutional framework.
Conclusion: a strategic recalibration with a clear question
The Aberdeen conference’s vote signals a strategic recalibration toward a clearer, more deliverable path to independence. By prioritising a straightforward, majority-based mandate, the SNP seeks to restore confidence among voters who demand a precise question and a credible answer. Whether this strategy translates into a successful election outcome remains to be seen, but the party’s emphasis on clarity marks a defining moment in its pursuit of Scotland’s future constitutional status.
