Overview of the Poll
A new Business Post/Red C poll offers a striking snapshot of public sentiment in the ongoing Presidential Election race, highlighting a substantial lead for Independent candidate Catherine Connolly. According to the survey, Connolly holds 36% support, placing her well ahead of Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys, who sits at 25%. Jim Gavin—whose name remains on the ballot paper despite his withdrawal from the contest late last Sunday—polled at 12%, while a notable 27% of respondents said they were undecided.
What the Numbers Tell Us
The poll, conducted online with a sample of 1,001 adults between October 2 and October 7, carries a margin of error of ±3%. The timing is significant: Gavin withdrew from the race on the evening of October 5, yet his name remains on ballots, potentially influencing voter behavior and the overall dynamics of the contest. Connolly’s lead suggests a strong desire among a broad segment of voters for an independent candidate, while Humphreys’ position indicates continued support for a government-aligned contender.
Implications for the Áras Contest
Connolly’s 36% support marks a notable advantage in a crowded field and could translate into a first-preference momentum advantage should the race follow Ireland’s typical multi-round counting system, where transfers and preferences matter. While Humphreys sits comfortably in second, the 11-point gap reinforces the challenge for the Fine Gael candidate to close the gap, particularly if the undecided bloc leans in Connolly’s direction or if Gavin’s withdrawal has lingering effects on voters who may have supported him as a protest or symbolic choice.
Undecided Voters Remain a Key Variable
With 27% of respondents undecided, the outcome remains fluid. Campaigns on both sides will likely intensify outreach to these voters in the final days of the campaign, aiming to convert undecideds into supporters. The presence of a prominent independent candidate like Connolly could also influence how undecided voters weigh issues such as governance style, policy priorities, and the desire for change versus continuity.
Strategic Considerations for Campaigns
For Connolly, the challenge will be to maintain her current level of support while mitigating any late-emerging shifts from undecided voters. Messaging that emphasizes independence, local impact, and pragmatic policy proposals could help convert latent support into firm votes. For Humphreys, the task is to translate second-place positioning into a broader coalition, appealing to voters who might otherwise drift toward Connolly or stay undecided until the last minute.
The Role of Gavin’s Name on the Ballot
The polling data is complicated by Jim Gavin’s withdrawal from the race on October 5. His continued presence on ballots could affect strategic voting and transfer dynamics, especially among voters who had previously indicated support for him or who are considering a protest vote. Analysts will watch how Gavin’s absence from active campaigning translates into actual ballot choices as voting day approaches.
What to Watch Next
As the campaign enter its final stretch, the next wave of polling will be critical in assessing shifting opinions, especially among undecided voters. Any late developments in candidate statements, policy proposals, or public appearances could cause movement that reshapes the final tally. Voter turnout will also play a decisive role, potentially amplifying or dampening the effects of the current split in support.
Bottom line: The Business Post/Red C poll paints a picture of a competitive race with a clear lead for the independent candidate, but with a sizable undecided group that could swing the result in the closing days of the campaign.
