Quedan Doubles Back to the North, Exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility
Tropical Storm Quedan, known locally as Nakri, finally left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 11:10 pm on Thursday, October 9, after a brief sojourn inside Manila’s weather zone. The storm spent just over 10 hours within PAR, making its July-like march through the archipelago a short-lived episode in the 2025 cyclone season. By 4:00 am on Friday, October 10, Quedan was located around 1,355 kilometers east-northeast of extreme Northern Luzon, continuing on a north-northwest track toward Japan’s Ryukyu Islands at a steady pace of 20 km/h.
PAGASA, the Philippine weather authority, reported that Quedan maintained maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h with gusts up to 90 km/h. Despite its crossing of PAR, the storm did not disrupt weather or sea conditions within the country during its stay. Quedan remains the 17th tropical cyclone observed in 2025 and the second named storm in October, following Typhoon Paolo (Matmo). PAGASA also projects a potentially busy October with two to four tropical cyclones possible this month.
New LPA Forms Outside PAR: What Weather Officials Are Watching
While Quedan dissipated in PAR, a separate low pressure area (LPA) formed outside the Philippine boundary in the early hours of Friday. As of 3:00 am, the LPA was located about 335 kilometers west-northwest of Pag-asa Island, Kalayaan, Palawan, and is moving northward. Weather officials say it is unlikely to enter PAR or develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
Nevertheless, the presence of a trough or extension associated with the LPA is bringing scattered rain and thunderstorms to Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, much of Mimaropa, and Central Luzon on Friday. The local winds and moisture flow could provoke flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas, particularly in regions recently soaked by rainfall or with marginal drainage capacity.
Forecast Guidance and Impacts
PAGASA cautions that the southwesterly and northeasterly windflows feeding this developing weather pattern may generate strong to gale-force gusts in several areas, including Batanes, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Palawan on Friday, with Palawan also facing gusty conditions into Saturday.
Despite the external weather potential, the immediate impact of Quedan’s exit remains limited for the Philippines. The storm’s path is steering away toward the open sea, reducing the risk of direct landfall as it travels toward Japan. meteorologists emphasize that the broader tropical cyclone activity trend this month could still influence rain patterns across the country, with some systems bringing heavy downpours to localized areas.
Safety and Preparedness Reminders
Residents are advised to monitor official PAGASA advisories and the weather updates from local government units. While Quedan’s exit from PAR reduces the immediate danger, the new LPA and the associated trough still pose rain and flood risks in parts of Luzon and nearby regions. People living in flood-prone zones should prepare emergency kits, monitor river levels, and stay alert for possible flash floods or landslides, especially in mountainous or rural communities with limited drainage infrastructure.
In coastal areas, anglers and sea travelers should heed advisories about sea conditions and avoid unnecessary journeys if rough seas persist. As always, keeping a weather-focused mindset helps communities respond quickly to evolving tropical weather scenarios.
Looking Ahead to the Weekend
Forecasts suggest a mixed picture for the Philippines into the weekend, with ongoing rainfall in some regions and clearer skies in others. Meteorologists will continue to track the movement of Quedan and the newly formed LPA, updating the public as more information becomes available. Given the potential for multiple tropical cyclones this October, residents and authorities alike should stay vigilant and prepared for possible weather-related disruptions.
