Explosions in Kabul unfold as Taliban diplomacy gains urgency
A string of explosions and bursts of gunfire rattled Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, on Thursday evening, leaving officials uncertain about casualties or the cause. The incidents coincided with a high-profile diplomatic push by the Taliban, who had sent their foreign minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, to India for a six-day visit—the first such trip since the Taliban returned to power in 2021.
Taliban authorities acknowledged that an explosion occurred, with government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stating on X in Pashto that the blast was under investigation and that no injuries had been reported so far. The absence of immediate fatalities in official statements has yet to be verified by independent sources, and chaotic social-media chatter has circulated claims of various outcomes.
The Kabul blasts arrive against a backdrop of fragile ties between Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan. Islamabad has long accused the Taliban administration of offering sanctuary to armed groups, notably Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Pakistan says hosts or supports fighters responsible for attacks on Pakistani security forces. The Taliban’s response, so far, has been guarded, with no formal accusations directed at any party for the Kabul incidents.
Regardless of who is responsible, the timing of the explosions has amplified suspicions about cross-border security dynamics in a region already scarred by decades of conflict. Analysts note that if Pakistan were involved in any strikes inside Afghan territory, it would carry heavy political and military repercussions for already-tense relations.
A diplomatic pivot while Islamabad and Kabul test each other
Over recent months, Kabul has attempted a recalibration of its foreign policy, seeking engagement with regional powers including India, once seen as a rival, to secure diplomatic recognition and bolster regional legitimacy. This shift comes as Western influence wanes and the Taliban seek alternate avenues of support and legitimacy beyond the Gulf states and neighboring powers.
The Kabul explosions also come at a moment when Pakistan has intensified rhetoric about Afghan safe havens for terrorists. Pakistan’s leadership has warned that ties with Afghanistan hinge on cooperation against militants, while Afghanistan and its backers argue that cross-border disputes fuel instability on both sides of the Durand Line.
What the data says about cross-border violence
Security researchers point to rising militant activity tied to the TTP, with data showing a sustained surge in attacks along the border since 2021. The Afghanistan-Pakistan dynamic is often described as a cycle: Afghan stability can help curb cross-border attacks, while Pakistani security pressures and domestic security concerns influence Afghan calculations.
In Kabul, the foreign minister’s India visit has yielded significant attention, underscoring a strategic move to diversify diplomatic ties. However, the explosions threaten to complicate outreach efforts and could constrain the Taliban’s ability to coordinate regional security steps with any party, including India.
<h2 Regional risk and analyst perspectives
Security experts caution that cross-border violence tends to intensify if retaliation appears imminent. Kabul’s authorities—facing the challenge of governing a country with limited institutional capacity—will need to demonstrate resilience and restraint as investigations unfold. Analysts in Kabul and Islamabad warn that if Pakistan or any other actor escalates strikes in Afghanistan, it may harden attitudes and reduce the space for dialogue on counterterrorism.
“If strikes inside Kabul have occurred or are perceived to have occurred, they risk hardening positions and complicating cooperation against the TTP,” noted a Kabul-based analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity.
<h2 Looking ahead
As the Taliban navigate a perilous diplomatic path, the international community watches for any formal statements linking the Kabul blasts to specific groups or state actors. For now, officials stress that the incident is under investigation and that no confirmed casualties have been reported. The outcome of Muttaqi’s visit to India may influence how regional players calibrate their security and diplomatic postures in the weeks ahead.
