Introduction: A high-stakes diplomatic milestone
The arrival of Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Delhi for an eight-day program marks the Taliban’s most significant high-level outreach to India since they seized power in Kabul in 2021. The visit underscores a pragmatic shift in regional diplomacy, as both New Delhi and Kabul signal readiness to discuss diplomacy, trade, and regional security despite Pakistan’s shifting influence.
Why this visit matters for India
For India, the trip represents a recalibration of its Afghanistan policy. While New Delhi has not formally recognised the Taliban as Afghanistan’s government, it maintains a discreet, functional relationship with the group and continues to deliver humanitarian aid and development support. The talks with Jaishankar and other officials are designed to progress bilateral trade links, unlock potential investment, and explore capability-building and infrastructure projects that align with India’s broader interests in Iran and Central Asia.
What Kabul seeks from Delhi
Muttaqi’s agenda is multi-faceted: secure reliable economic engagement, ensure safe and predictable transit for Indian business interests, and maintain a visible presence in regional diplomacy. Kabul’s approach signals a desire to diversify ties beyond Pakistan, reducing overdependence and shaping a regional framework where Afghanistan remains integral to South Asia’s connectivity corridors.
Regional dynamics: A broader balance of power
The visit unfolds against a backdrop of cooling India-Pakistan ties and a Taliban administration seeking to hedge its bets. Analysts note that India’s engagement with the Taliban could help counterbalance Pakistani influence while also complicating Islamabad’s ability to present Afghanistan as solely a Pakistani proxy. Experts argue this shift points to a cautious reset in India-Taliban relations, with both sides prioritising pragmatic engagement over ideological alignment.
Pakistan’s position and regional implications
Pakistan has long viewed Afghanistan as an extension of its strategic theatre. The Taliban’s fluctuating relationship with Islamabad—especially over the presence of the Pakistani Taliban on Afghan soil—has pushed Kabul to diversify its diplomatic partnerships. If Delhi can maintain steady dialogue with Kabul, it may gain leverage in regional security talks and help shape a more stable political climate in Afghanistan, which in turn affects cross-border trade and security in South Asia.
What observers are saying
Think-tank analysts describe the visit as a signal of legitimacy-building for the Taliban among regional players. Brahma Chellaney, Harsh Pant, and other analysts suggest that this engagement could herald a subtle realignment of regional power dynamics, with India, Russia, and Iran weighing options to balance influence against Pakistan and China. The dialogue is framed as a practical step toward stabilizing Afghanistan’s economy and preventing a humanitarian collapse that would have spillover effects in South Asia and beyond.
Conclusion: Pragmatism over promises
Though the relationship remains cautious and largely pragmatic, the Taliban’s willingness to engage a major regional power like India signals a new phase in South Asian diplomacy. For New Delhi, the priority is security and stability, while for Kabul the aim is diversification and legitimacy on the international stage. If the talks yield concrete steps in trade, investment, and humanitarian channels, they could set a precedent for future cooperation that honors both sides’ strategic interests without compromising their respective domestic considerations.
