Week 6 Showdown: Florio vs. Simms in the NFL Pick’em
Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season brings another edition of the Florio vs. Simms picks column. After a chaotic stretch last week, the duo dives back in with their usual blend of football intellect, gut feel, and the occasional caveat about wagering responsibility. Florio’s numbers have not held, but the banter remains sharp, and the spread plays offer a window into how both analysts evaluate injuries, matchups, and travel hurdles across the league.
Recap of Week 5: Where things went sideways
Last week, the author (Florio) went 4-10 straight up, with a 6-8 mark against the spread. Simms graded out better at 8-6 overall. The year-to-date tally shows Florio at 51-26-1 SU and 44-34 ATS, while Simms sits at 49-28-1 SU and 39-39 ATS. The public takeaway is simple: even seasoned predictors can be blindsided by outlier outcomes and late-week line moves. The lesson, as always, is to wager responsibly and recognize that odds are designed to reward risk, not guarantee profit.
Week 6 Lineup: Where the two disagree (and where they agree)
There is only one straight-up and against-the-spread disagreement this week, signaling a rare moment of consensus between Florio and Simms on a slate that features several expected struggles and a few potential upsets. Here are the games that matter most, with both analysts’ picks:
- Eagles (-7) at Giants
- Broncos (-7.5) vs. Jets at London
- Rams (-7.5) at Ravens
- Cowboys (-3) at Panthers
- Colts (-7) at Cardinals
- Seahawks at Jaguars (-1.5)
- Chargers (-4.5) at Dolphins
- Patriots (-3.5) at Saints
- Browns at Steelers (-5.5)
- Titans at Raiders (-3.5)
- Bengals at Packers (-14)
- 49ers at Buccaneers (-3)
- Lions at Chiefs (-2.5)
- Bills (-4.5) at Falcons
- Bears at Commanders (-4.5)
Florio: Eagles 24, Giants 13. Simms: Eagles 27, Giants 17.
Florio: Broncos 28, Jets 9. Simms: Broncos 28, Jets 13.
Florio: Rams 30, Ravens 13. Simms: Rams 34, Ravens 17.
Florio: Cowboys 27, Panthers 20. Simms: Cowboys 31, Panthers 27.
Florio: Colts 27, Cardinals 17. Simms: Colts 31, Cardinals 20.
Florio: Jaguars 21, Seahawks 17. Simms: Jaguars 34, Seahawks 24.
Florio: Chargers 27, Dolphins 24. Simms: Chargers 23, Dolphins 20.
Florio: Patriots 24, Saints 16. Simms: Patriots 28, Saints 17.
Florio: Steelers 24, Browns 14. Simms: Steelers 20, Browns 13.
Florio: Raiders 28, Titans 24. Simms: Raiders 20, Titans 13.
Florio: Packers 34, Bengals 17. Simms: Packers 35, Bengals 20.
Florio: Buccaneers 31, 49ers 27. Simms: Buccaneers 24, 49ers 20.
Florio: Lions 30, Chiefs 24. Simms: Lions 30, Chiefs 21.
Florio: Bills 23, Falcons 20. Simms: Bills 24, Falcons 21.
Florio: Commanders 35, Bears 27. Simms: Bears 34, Commanders 31.
As always, the column underscores a common theme in NFL wagering: even a small edge can be erased by variance, injuries, or a single play that changes momentum in a game the books never quite predict. The closer you look, the more you realize how much edge lies in the margins rather than in the marquee matchups.
What drives the picks: Methodology behind Florio and Simms
Florio tends to favor a blend of analytics and eye-test evaluation. He weighs quarterback stability, offensive line health, and coaching situational awareness, especially in games with cross-continental travel or late-season pressure scenarios. Simms often leans into recent performance trends, defensive schematics, and the likelihood of script-driven games (games where one team imposes a tempo early and sticks to it). The Week 6 slate reflects that mix: some lines scream “style matches” (Lions vs. Chiefs, Jaguars vs. Seahawks) while others hinge on quarterback durability and line stabilization (Colts vs. Cardinals, Patriots vs. Saints).
Takeaways for bettors: discipline and perspective
The season’s current record shows both analysts can swing wide from week to week. The key advice remains: wager with money you can afford to lose, and avoid chasing losses after a rough stretch. The NFL season is long, and Week 6 is a reminder that even the best predictors will encounter regressions. For fans, that means more entertaining Sundays and, for bettors, a hunch-backed test of patience and risk management.
Closing thoughts
Week 6 delivers a slate packed with narrative threads: teams trying to prove they belong in the playoff conversation, and others attempting to salvage reputations after rough starts. Florio and Simms will continue to offer their perspectives, and the best advice for readers remains the same—watch the games, analyze the numbers, and bet responsibly.
