ASEAN+3 Stays Resilient in a World of Heightened Uncertainty
The ASEAN+3 region—encompassing the ten ASEAN member states plus China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea—continues to demonstrate resilience amid heightened global uncertainties. The latest releases from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) include the Financial Stability Report (AFSR) 2025 and the October Update of the Regional Economic Outlook (AREO). Taken together, the assessments highlight solid growth prospects, robust financial systems, and prudent policy buffers that help shield the region from external shocks, even as pockets of vulnerability remain.
Growth Outlook Reflects Broad-Based Momentum
AMRO projects growth for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.1 percent in 2025 and 3.8 percent in 2026. This marks an upward revision from earlier forecasts, driven by a solid first half of the year and stronger-than-expected export momentum. The improvement comes despite risks linked to shifting U.S. trade policy and ongoing geopolitical tensions that have the potential to influence global financial conditions.
Analysts emphasize that intra-regional trade and domestic demand are increasingly important engines of growth. Yet, the region remains deeply tied to the global financial cycle. As AMRO Chief Economist Dong He notes, the area is not insulated from global shocks, even as its financial system shows resilience overall. The challenges are not trivial: export-oriented firms, particularly smaller enterprises with exposure to U.S. demand, could face margin pressures as trade dynamics shift.
Policy Buffers and Financial Stability
Despite external headwinds, the region benefits from well-calibrated policy mixes and strong economic fundamentals. Banking systems remain robust, financial markets are deepening, foreign reserves are ample, and policy space persists, providing a cushion for growth. Inflation has been largely subdued, and expectations remain anchored in most economies. This combination allows central banks to maintain accommodative monetary policies to support ongoing expansion while monitoring emerging risks.
Macroprudential tools, foreign exchange measures, and capital flow management remain key lines of defense against spillovers. AMRO cautions that support should target vulnerable sectors and be deployed carefully to preserve policy space as uncertainty lingers. The overarching message is one of prudent navigation: use the available tools to sustain resilience without overheating the domestic economies.
Digital Transformation and New Stability Challenges
Beyond near-term risks, the region is undergoing deeper structural shifts. Digitalization of financial services offers the promise of greater financial inclusion and efficiency, but it also introduces new stability considerations. As AMRO Group Head for Financial Surveillance, Runchana Pongsaparn, explains, modernization reshapes market structure and risk distribution. Policymakers are urged to pursue a multi-pronged strategy that fosters innovation while containing risks, tailoring approaches to the maturity of each market segment.
Strategic Pathways for Resilience
AMRO’s guidance centers on reinforcing policy frameworks, enhancing transparency, and deepening domestic markets and buffers. Strengthening governance and disclosure can help mitigate spillovers from external shocks, while continued financial integration supports risk-sharing and diversification. The collective stance is to prepare for a range of scenarios, including potential shifts in the U.S. dollar’s safe-haven status, which could reconfigure global liquidity flows.
Looking Ahead
As ASEAN+3 manages near-term uncertainties, the emphasis remains on coordinated regional actions and continued financial cooperation. With stable macroeconomic fundamentals and targeted policy tools, the region is positioned to convert today’s challenges into tomorrow’s opportunities—becoming more connected and more resilient in the process. AMRO’s flagship publications—the ASEAN+3 Financial Stability Report 2025 and the AREO October Update—provide detailed insights for policymakers and market participants.
For audiences seeking broader context, AMRO also offers insights in Chinese, Japanese, and Korean, underscoring its role as a regional knowledge hub and technical partner.
