Overview: A Potential Expansion on the Table
Australia’s parliament is considering a landmark change: increasing the number of MPs and moving toward fixed or four-year terms. The inquiry, led by the joint committee on electoral matters, was commissioned by Special Minister of State Don Farrell to explore whether more representatives are needed and whether elections should run on a predictable schedule rather than at the discretion of the prime minister.
The examination follows a track record of reforms pursued in recent years. Senator Farrell, who previously steered a review of political donations, notes that population growth could warrant revisiting the balance of representatives in the House of Representatives and the Senate. He cautions, however, that Australians might prefer the status quo, and any change would require broad support.
Why Now? Population Growth and Workloads
Australia’s population has surged from about 16 million in 1984 to roughly 27 million today, with projections reaching the high 20s ahead of the 2028 federal election. Each electorate is currently home to around 120,000 voters, a substantial increase from the 75,000 voters per electorate when the last expansion occurred in 1984 under Prime Minister Bob Hawke. Senator Farrell argues that MPs and their staff face greater duties as they strive to service constituents, making a case for a potential expansion worthy of consideration.
“We don’t have a particular number in mind,” Farrell said during Senate estimates, noting the issue has been passed to the body that routinely reviews constitutional and electoral matters. While he stresses that the discussion is exploratory, he suggests that any decision would be the result of careful deliberation rather than a rushed move.
Fixed Terms and Four-Year Cycles: What Might Change
The inquiry also explores whether Australia should adopt fixed election cycles. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has shown support for four-year terms, aligning with state practices. However, implementing such changes could require a referendum, a step Albanese has avoided during the term after the Voice referendum controversy. There is also mention of a path where fixed terms could be pursued without a referendum, contingent on constitutional advice and, potentially, parliamentary agreement.
The possibility of four-year terms would necessitate constitutional considerations and likely a public vote. The government is weighing whether to push the reform through a broader package or to address electoral integrity and funding reforms first, depending on the inquiry’s interim findings due by mid-2026.
Nexus and Redistribution: How an Expansion Might Be Executed
Any substantial increase in MPs must comply with the constitution’s “nexus” rule: the number of MPs in the House must be approximately twice the number of senators, with a careful redistribution of electorates. The current framework guarantees five MPs per state, and proposals to double the number of territory senators have also been floated. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has cautioned that redrawing the electoral map would be a significant undertaking, likely requiring a comprehensive redistribution in the six mainland states before any new parliament takes effect.
Commissioner Jeff Pope pointed out that the number of seats could precipitate a large-scale reconfiguration of districts, a process that would be both technical and politically sensitive.
Opposition and Public Readiness
Politically, the move is not without opposition. James McGrath, the Coalition’s shadow special minister of state, criticized the focus on parliamentary expansion amid concerns over healthcare, cost of living, and housing. He argued resources should instead address more immediate crises facing Australians. The debate, however, continues in public hearings slated to begin next week, with stakeholder submissions expected as the inquiry begins its work.
Outlook
The inquiry’s interim report is due mid-2026, and any change would require further parliamentary agreement and potentially referenda. While there is support in principal for aligning Australia with fixed-term cycles seen in some states, practical steps depend on constitutional advice and the outcome of ongoing hearings.
