EU Defense Chief Sounds Alarm Over Kremlin’s Possible Plans Against NATO
An ominous warning reverberated across European capitals as European Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius claimed German intelligence is gathering evidence that the Kremlin may be discussing an attack on NATO. In an interview with the Polish daily Wyborcza, Kubilius urged that even the suggestion of such deliberations must be treated with utmost seriousness, urging vigilance and preparedness on the continent.
“I trust the secret services. And German intelligence claims it has evidence that the Kremlin is discussing an attack on NATO,” Kubilius said. “If they’re discussing it, are they planning an attack? We don’t know. But such signals must be taken deadly seriously. They may indeed be ready for war. We must also be ready for it and learn not only from the experiences of the Ukrainians, but also from the Russians.”
The EU official’s comments come amid a broader and heightened exchange of rhetoric and incidents between Moscow and Western capitals. President Vladimir Putin has publicly questioned NATO’s cohesion and capability, at times describing the alliance as a “paper tiger” and challenging member states to confront Russia directly. He also accused NATO of arming and training Ukraine and warned that Russia would respond with countermeasures if pressed.
Despite the rhetoric, the thread running through European security circles is a mix of caution and resolve. Recent aerial intrusions into NATO airspace have underscored persistent test cases for alliance readiness. In September, a swarm of Russian drones crossed into Poland, triggering scramble responses by NATO aircraft and resulting in several shoot-downs. A few days later, NATO jets intercepted Russian warplanes near Estonia, underscoring the fragile balance in Europe’s airspace and the rapid escalation of near-miss incidents.
Officials have stressed that while Moscow has been blamed for many overflights and drone activities, confirmation about intentional targeting or coordinated campaigns is not always forthcoming. Some incidents have appeared to be opportunistic or miscalibrated attempts to gauge response times and readiness. Still, the pattern has prompted European leaders to reassess deterrence, cyber resilience, and rapid-reaction options — including the use of drones, satellites, and air defense equal to the scale of modern hybrid threats.
Analysts note that the current moment is less about a single trigger and more about a testing of nerves, capabilities, and political will on both sides. The Kremlin’s rhetoric, coupled with sporadic drone activity and airspace incursions, has kept NATO allies on heightened alert. In response, European defense ministries are emphasizing joint training, intelligence sharing, and more integrated defense procurement to reduce gaps that could be exploited during a crisis.
There is a consensus that resilience must be built across multiple fronts: border security, air policing, cyber defense, and critical infrastructure protection. Some advocacy groups argue for a more aggressive stance on decoupling Russian supply chains from European markets and accelerating defense modernization. Others urge measured diplomacy to prevent any miscalculation that could spiral toward broader conflict.
As Kubilius and other European officials caution against complacency, they also stress the importance of learning from Ukraine’s experience in adapting to drone warfare and advanced reconnaissance tactics. The war in Ukraine has significantly influenced how European nations view risk, innovate with unmanned systems, and invest in defensive capabilities that could deter aggression without tipping into escalation.
In the coming weeks, European leaders are expected to discuss enhanced deterrence, intelligence sharing, and potential joint drills aimed at strengthening NATO’s ability to respond to a range of scenarios — from sudden air incursions to more sophisticated hybrid operations that combine drones, cyber tools, and misinformation. For now, the message is clear: the possibility of conflict remains, and preparedness is the watchword for this generation of European security policy.
What This Means for Civilians and Policy
While leaders debate strategy, civilians should remain informed but not alarmed. Authorities emphasize staying calm, following official guidance, and understanding evacuation and shelter plans where applicable. The broader takeaway is a push toward resilience — from emergency services training to robust energy and communications protection — to ensure everyday life can withstand destabilizing shocks.
Ultimately, the debate focuses on deterrence, diplomacy, and readiness. The coming months will test whether warnings translate into concrete steps that reduce risk and preserve stability in Europe.
