Can Babiš Form a Stable Government After the Election Win?
The brief victory of Andrej Babiš’s ANO party in the Czech parliamentary elections has set the stage for a high-stakes quest: can a single-party minority government be steered to stability in a country known for coalition bargaining and parliamentary checks? While ANO took a commanding 34.5% of the vote, securing a provisional 80 seats in the 200-member chamber, it falls short of an outright majority. That shortfall immediately raises questions about both the feasibility of governance and how lasting such a government could be.
Political Landscape Still Shaped by Coalition Realities
The election outcome entrenches a familiar pattern in Czech politics: a strong winner without a clear coalition partner. The centre-right Spolu coalition, loyalty to the outgoing prime minister Petr Fiala, finished second with 23.4%. Several potential allies have ruled out joining ANO in a traditional coalition, leaving Babiš to seek support from fringe or smaller parties to secure a working majority or to operate a carefully managed minority government with confidence-and-supply backing.
Potential Partners and Their Calculus
Two smaller groups with a stated openness to talks are the SPD (a right-wing, Eurosceptic party) and the Motorists. Their involvement could give ANO the critical 101-seat majority needed to govern, but both have non-trivial caveats: the SPD’s far-right stance and its own political vulnerabilities complicate longer-term collaboration, while the Motorists are likely to demand policy concessions that could constrain Babiš’s agenda.
Analysts caution that a momentum-led, one-party government might still be vulnerable to defections or gridlock on key policy issues, from fiscal levers to defence and security policy that touch upon EU standards and transatlanic ties. A minority arrangement would reduce the immediacy of full cooperation with partners but could invite frequent confidence votes and ongoing negotiations with opposition forces, potentially eroding policy coherence.
EU, NATO, and Economic Realities as Constraints
Babiš has framed his platform around faster growth, higher wages, pension increases, and tax relief, while casting himself as a pragmatist open to EU cooperation. Yet his stance on the EU climate agenda, migration policy, and the Czech Republic’s role in European defence will be continually tested by both the EU institutions and the Czech Senate, which can veto electoral and constitutional changes and influence judicial appointments.
European alignment matters for a country benefiting from EU funds and foreign direct investment. Even if Babiš can form a governing coalition, EU rules and the risk of a Brussels backlash could curb any bold domestic policy shifts. A cabinet approach that balances nationally popular moves with EU-compatible reforms will likely be favored by the president and the legal establishment alike.
Presidential Checks and Constitutional Pathways
President Petr Pavel has stated he will seek ministers who are aligned with EU and NATO commitments and has signalled a careful approach to potential conflicts of interest involving Babiš. The president’s constitutional prerogatives allow for rejection of certain cabinet appointments, which could delay or complicate Babiš’s plans if the proposed line-up appears unfit under Czech and European law.
Outlook: Stability or Short-Lived Arrangements?
In the near term, Babiš’s ability to assemble a credible governance framework will depend on three factors: the degree of support from SPD and the Motorists, the durability of any confidence-and-supply arrangement, and the willingness of institutions to tolerate policy concessions that may be necessary to secure broad political legitimacy.
Ultimately, while Babiš can form a government on paper, turning this into a stable administration capable of enacting a durable policy agenda will demand compromises that may limit his room for maneuver. The era of single-party governance without coalition support appears unlikely in the Czech Republic, suggesting any government headed by ANO will need to navigate a web of parliamentary constraints, EU obligations, and evolving party dynamics.
