Overview: A Narrow Victory and a Heavy Burden
Andrej Babiš’s ANO party secured a strong electoral showing, winning about 34.5% of the vote and translating into roughly 80 seats in the 200-member Czech parliament. Yet this result falls short of an outright majority, thrusting the billionaire populist into a make-or-break phase of coalition-building and confidence management. Babiš has publicly signaled his intent to present a government plan that complies with Czech and European law, but the practical path to a stable administration is fraught with political timing, rival offers, and the constraints of the Czech constitutional framework.
Short-Term Hurdles: Coalition or Confidence-and-Supply?
The immediate question is whether Babiš can assemble a governing majority. Three parties have already indicated they will not join ANO in government, narrowing his options. Analysts expect Babiš to pursue talks with smaller, fringe right-wing groups such as the SPD and the Motorists, with the aim of forming either a minority government backed by a confidence-and-supply arrangement or a cautious multi-party coalition. A single-party ANO government would require extraordinary discipline and legislative luck to survive votes on budgets, reforms, and EU-related issues.
The role of the president and constitutional limits
President Petr Pavel holds a central gatekeeping role. He has stated that he will not appoint ministers who push for Czech withdrawal from the EU or NATO, and he is consulting legal advisers about potential conflicts of interest surrounding Babiš. Pavel can, in theory, reject a proposed cabinet if he deems it inconsistent with constitutional requirements or the country’s international commitments. While such a rejection is unlikely, it could force Babiš to adjust his cabinet and policy platform, extending the process and undermining any sense of momentum.
Where the EU, finances, and policy stances come into play
Despite occasional flirtations with far-right rhetoric, Babiš has generally framed ANO as pro-European and pro-NATO, emphasizing economic growth, higher wages, and tax relief. Meanwhile, Brussels expectations and EU funding realities will constrain the tempo and direction of reforms. His government’s stance on migration, climate policy, and the Czech Republic’s EU commitments will matter not only for Brussels but for business and financial markets that react to policy certainty. Analysts warn that even with a parliamentary majority, pushing radical shifts would risk economic volatility and political backlash.
What a minority government might look like
A minority ANO government backed by the SPD and perhaps the Motorists could technically pass legislation if it wins enough votes on a case-by-case basis. However, such an arrangement relies on fragile cross-party agreements and can be dominated by political brinkmanship. Stability would depend on predictable budgets, consistent policy messaging, and effective parliamentary management. The risk of policy deadlock or abrupt policy reversals would be higher than in a broad, negotiated coalition.
Why this election is different for European trends
While Babiš has courted affinity with some right-wing, Eurosceptic voices, his stance remains more pragmatic than doctrinally adversarial toward the EU. The Czech Republic’s political culture, institutional checks, and the specter of populist backlash across Europe mean that any government led by ANO will be carefully watched. Even if Babiš succeeds in forming a government, it is unlikely to mirror the more openly confrontational tactics of Hungary’s Orbán or Slovakia’s Fico. The Czech system’s checks—senate vetoes and judicial appointments—provide ballast that could moderate rapid policy shifts.
Outlook: Can stability be achieved?
Stability hinges on three factors: whether ANO can secure a workable majority or reliable confidence-and-supply partners; the president’s approval of the cabinet and its commitments; and continued alignment with EU norms to preserve funding and economic credibility. Given the political fragmentation and the presence of anti-EU sentiment in some coalition talks, Babiš faces a race against time to build a credible program that satisfies voters, courts, and Brussels alike. The next several weeks will reveal whether he can turn a strong electoral performance into durable governance or if the dynamics of coalition politics will necessitate a more inclusive approach than he has suggested so far.
