The race for the Czech Parliament
Voters in the Czech Republic went to the polls to elect 200 members of the lower house as polling stations closed on Saturday afternoon. The turnout remains unknown, with 2021’s participation standing at 65.43%. The 10.9 million-strong nation is watching a contest dominated by billionaire Andrej Babis, a Slovak-born former prime minister who leads the ANO movement and has positioned himself as the main challenger to the governing bloc.
Polls, coalitions and the math of power
Current surveys place ANO at about 30% of voting intent, ahead of the centre-right coalition “Together” led by Petr Fiala at roughly 20%. Yet the numbers do not guarantee a stable majority. Babis’ coalition also includes the far-right SPD (around 12%), a list named the “Voice of the Car Owners,” and a left-wing radical faction, all of which either hover near or fall below the 5% threshold. The government bloc—anchored by STAN (about 12%) and the Pirates (around 9%), who left the governing coalition in 2024—still faces a difficult path to a durable majority even if totals line up on paper.
Policy shifts on Ukraine and regional alignments
A return to power for Babis could tilt the Czech Republic toward positions seen in Hungary and Slovakia on Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. During the campaign, he promised to expand social benefits while trimming some Ukraine aid, a stance that sits uneasily with a country that has historically backed Kyiv and hosted more than 500,000 Ukrainian refugees (about 300,000 remain). The potential policy shift raises questions for NATO allies and EU partners about Prague’s future role in collective security and sanctions policy.
Who wants what
Adela Zlamalova, 20, voted for Ensemble, saying she fears the country might abandon NATO if Babis wins. “That would be the worst thing that could happen,” she told AFP. In contrast, Boris Lucansky, 60, cited energy prices and a desire for change as his reasons to back Babis, hoping for stronger leadership to tackle inflation and households’ costs.
The broader political landscape and potential obstacles
Critics accuse Babis of conflating Czech state interests with those of his business empire. Forbes ranks him as the seventh-wealthiest person in the country, with a fortune near $3.9 billion, and he faces a European Union subsidy fraud case. President Petr Pavel, a veteran of NATO and a pro-European, has suggested he may struggle to name Babis prime minister if the coalition dynamics remain uncertain. Babis also co-founded with Hungary’s Viktor Orban the eurosceptic group “Patriots for Europe,” a partnership that further complicates the country’s pro-Western stance in a shifting regional balance.
Disinformation and transparency concerns
Analysts have noted increasing pro-Russian online activity around the campaign, including on TikTok, with the Czech Risk Center reporting a rise in content favoring anti-system parties. Separately, the American Sunlight Project found SPD spending thousands of dollars on public ads on Meta platforms without the required disclosures, far outstripping spending by Babis’ ANO and Fiala’s bloc. Meta said it is investigating these reports and has already acted on several ads for non-compliance. The unfolding discourse could intensify calls for greater transparency in political advertising as the vote tally becomes clear.
What happens next?
With results expected later in the evening, the immediate question is whether any bloc can assemble a stable majority. Even if ANO leads in seats, coalition-building will determine who can govern and for how long. The presidency will also influence the next premier’s fate, since President Pavel may assess the feasibility of a Babis government amid a diversified parliament. The coming days and weeks will reveal whether the Czech Republic steers toward a more conservative, eurosceptic line or preserves its current pro-Western course in a testing regional climate.
