Tariffs on the Agenda, Yet Not on the Formal Agenda
In Manila this week, the 47th Meeting of the ASEAN Ministers on Agriculture and Forestry (AMAF) underscored an important paradox in global trade policy. While US tariff policy loomed large over markets, it did not feature as a formal agenda item in the high-level sessions. Instead, the hotly debated issue emerged in informal discussions during a working lunch, signaling how ministers often manage sensitive trade questions outside official channels.
A key official, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr., described the lunch conversations as the “real” forum where ministers exchange blunt assessments. He recalled the recurring question, “Have you resolved or have you closed?”, reflecting how close some member states are to finalizing tariff positions with the United States. The exact status of any bilateral deals remained undisclosed, with Tiu Laurel noting that no minister volunteered a concrete timetable or signing commitment.
AMAF, held in a luxury hotel overlooking Manila Bay, brought together agriculture and forestry ministers from ASEAN and dialogue partners such as China, Japan, and South Korea. Despite the formal absence of a tariff-specific agenda, discussions hinted at broader strategic concerns: how to safeguard regional farmers, diversify export markets, and strengthen intra-ASEAN trade as a buffer against external shocks.
Lunchroom Politics: A Practical Forum
Officials emphasized that informal exchanges can reveal more nuanced positions than formal statements allow. The absence of a named list of countries with resolved tariff deals underscores the sensitivity of negotiations and the variability among ASEAN members. While ministers avoided public revelations about individual countries, the overarching takeaway was a push to rely more on regional partners first, before turning to distant markets.
“Trade within the region is critical for resilience,” said Tiu Laurel, who also highlighted the importance of exploring other markets for ASEAN products. The message aligns with a broader regional strategy: strengthen supply chains, protect farmers, and reduce overreliance on a single external market, especially one characterized by protectionist turns.
Philippines and the 19% US Tariff
Since August, Philippine goods entering the United States have faced a 19% tariff. Conversely, US exports to the Philippines are intended to be tariff-free, though officials note that a signed agreement remains elusive. The Marcos administration has described its July engagement with Washington as a “successful achievement” for achieving a modest one-point tariff adjustment. Negotiations for broader exemptions from the 19% rate continue, with farmers watching closely for concrete relief measures.
ASEAN Strategy: Deepening Internal Trade
The AMAF discussions reflect a broader regional emphasis on intra-ASEAN trade as a bedrock of economic security. Ministers stressed the need to diversify markets for agricultural and forestry products, reduce dependence on distant economies, and promote internal supply chains. While expanding ties within the bloc remains a priority, there is also an explicit aim to uncover new markets worldwide for ASEAN products, reflecting a balanced approach to resilience and growth.
China and ASEAN Exports: A Cautious Position
The Philippines’ agriculture chief noted that there had been no substantive bilateral discussions with China at the AMAF level about tariffs, though he pointed to China’s openness in general—especially regarding Philippine durian and other ASEAN produce. The absence of a formal discussion with Beijing signals a cautious, multi-track approach: manage bilateral friction where possible while cultivating regional cooperation and expanding export opportunities elsewhere.
A Regional Snapshot: Tariffs on ASEAN Members
As a reminder of the tariff landscape, here are the US rates imposed on various ASEAN economies, illustrating the uneven playing field that regional policymakers must navigate:
- Brunei: 25%
- Cambodia: 19%
- Indonesia: 19%
- Laos: 40%
- Malaysia: 19%
- Myanmar: 40%
- Singapore: 10%
- Vietnam: 20%
- Thailand: 19%
Against this backdrop, the AMAF meeting underscored that tariff policy is not merely a number on a page but a bundle of negotiations, compromises, and strategic choices. For Philippine farmers and ASEAN exporters, the question remains: when and how will relief be delivered, and what trade pathways will the region most actively pursue to weather a protectionist wave?
