Rising Threats and the Hybrid War Context
The Danish Defence Intelligence Service, known by its Danish acronym FE, has indicated a clear shift in the security landscape. After a series of drone sightings near airports and military facilities in Denmark, FE says the threat level is rising and more hybrid attacks should be expected. A key point is the designation of the attacker as a “capable actor” while the exact direction of command remains unclear. That ambivalence—typical of hybrid warfare—complicates attribution but does not diminish the seriousness of the risk.
In a press briefing, FE’s leadership underscored that these incidents fit patterns commonly observed in hybrid conflicts. As FE chief Thomas Ahrenkiel put it, Russia has historically used a mix of conventional pressure, covert activity, and information campaigns to test a neighbor’s resilience. The bottom line, according to FE, is that you cannot always point to a single mastermind behind every action; instead, you must examine the broader strategical picture and the cumulative pressure points it reveals.
Drone Incidents as a Barometer of Change
The focus on drones is not incidental. Over the past weeks, drones have appeared near critical civilian and military sites, prompting heightened security measures and closer coordination between civilian authorities and Denmark’s armed forces. FE emphasizes that drone activity is a characteristic tool in hybrid operations, designed to probe vulnerabilities, test response mechanisms, and create a sense of unpredictability. Even when attribution is contested, the operational impact—disrupted air traffic, degraded security postures, and the cost of constant vigilance—speaks for itself.
Why Attribution Is So Hard—and Why It Matters
FE stresses that the appeal of hybrid techniques lies in ambiguity. When it’s unclear who is behind an attack or provocation, deterrence must rely on resilience, readiness, and the ability to respond across domains—air, land, cyber, and information. This approach shifts the emphasis from hunting a lone actor to strengthening the whole system against recurring and evolving threats. For Denmark, that means bolstering early warning, enhancing screening at entry points, and ensuring rapid civilian-military cooperation during incidents.
Russia as a Central Reference Point
While FE does not claim direct causation for every event, Russia features prominently in the analysis. The service notes that Moscow often calibrates pressure to test Danish defenses and to gauge domestic resilience. The press conference framed Russia’s posture as part of a broader effort to wage hybrid warfare against Denmark and its NATO partners. This assessment places recent drone episodes within a larger strategic objective—maintaining leverage through hedged aggression and persistent intimidation rather than open confrontation alone.
Implications for Denmark and NATO
The evolving threat landscape has concrete tactical and strategic implications. At a practical level, Denmark may accelerate investments in sensor networks, airspace monitoring, and resilient infrastructure around airports and military sites. On the strategic level, the episodes reinforce the importance of NATO integration, joint exercises, and information sharing to deter and, if necessary, respond to hybrid actions. The FE messaging also signals a need for robust civil defense planning—ensuring that civilian transportation networks and critical services can operate under pressure and with minimal disruption during contested events.
Building Resilience: What Comes Next
Experts anticipate a staged response: reinforce detection capabilities, improve rapid attribution processes, and maintain a vigilant posture across multiple domains. In Denmark, this translates into closer collaboration between the armed forces, emergency responders, and transportation authorities. Regular, transparent public briefings help manage risk perception while avoiding overreaction. The overarching objective is simple but demanding: maintain continuity of government and daily life even as hybrid threats persist.
Public Confidence and Strategic Clarity
As FE points to Russia and the broader hybrid threat landscape, the public narrative should remain clear and evidence-based. A steady, multi-domain defense approach—rooted in resilience rather than panic—will be crucial to deter and withstand future attempts to destabilize Denmark. By weaving together intelligence, security measures, and transparent communication, Denmark can strengthen its defensive posture without surrendering the freedoms that underpin democratic society.
