PAGASA raises Paolo to Tropical Storm: What this advisory means
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 4 for Tropical Storm Paolo at 5:00 AM on 02 October 2025. The bulletin, valid for broadcast until the next advisory at 11:00 AM, confirms Paolo’s intensification into a tropical storm and outlines expected hazards, forecast tracks, and potential landfalls. As Paolo moves west-northwestward, residents in possible landfall areas should monitor the latest updates and prepare for heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal hazards.
Hazards affecting land areas
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Heavy rains are anticipated across the path of Paolo, with the biggest rainfall bands likely to affect low-lying and exposed areas. PAGASA notes the heavy rainfall outlook is detailed in Weather Advisory No. 3 at 5:00 AM. Communities along the predicted track should prepare for possible flooding and runoff, especially in districts already prone to flash floods during tropical cyclone passages.
Severe Winds
Winds associated with Paolo may reach levels that threaten susceptible structures and infrastructure. While many areas will experience only light to moderate winds (Wind Signal No. 1), the possibility exists that higher wind signals could be hoisted as Paolo approaches land. The bulletin also cautions that there is a scenario in which Paolo strengthens toward typhoon intensity before landfall, with Wind Signal No. 4 representing the worst-case outcome. Coastal and upland areas exposed to prevailing winds should brace for stronger gusts and potential damage.
Coastal Inundation and Storm Surge
Coastal communities are warned of a moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge, with peak heights of 1.0 to 2.0 meters possible within 36 hours in low-lying or exposed localities. Areas like Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes should monitor surge updates and prepare for possible coastal inundation that can affect shoreline structures and evacuation routes.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Sea conditions along the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon are expected to worsen, with gale warnings possibly raised this afternoon in anticipation of rough to very rough seas. Fisherfolk and coastal travelers should heed maritime advisories and avoid venturing into affected waters during the gale warning period.
Track and intensity outlook
PAOLO is forecast to move generally west-northwestward through the forecast period. On the current track, Paolo may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora by tomorrow morning (03 October). A southward shift of the track remains possible depending on the strength and position of a high-pressure system to the north of Paolo.
After crossing Northern Luzon, Paolo is expected to emerge over the West Philippine Sea by tomorrow afternoon and continue moving west-northwest toward the vicinity of its exit from the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday morning (04 October). Throughout this period, Paolo is forecast to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm status tomorrow morning. While intensification into a typhoon before landfall is not ruled out, it is considered highly likely once Paolo enters the West Philippine Sea.
Forecast confidence and public guidance
As with all tropical cyclone forecasts, the exact landfall location, timing, and intensity can shift within the forecast cone. The public should monitor PAGASA bulletins for updates, especially as landfall nears and forecast tracks tighten. Local authorities are advised to implement preemptive measures, check drainage systems, secure property, and prepare evacuation plans if you are in high-risk coastal or flood-prone communities.
What residents should do
- Stay informed via PAGASA advisories and local government alerts.
- Prepare emergency kits, food and water supplies for at least 3 days.
- Secure outdoor items, reinforce windows and doors, and follow evacuation orders if issued.
- Avoid venturing near beaches or coastal areas during storm surge and rough seas.
About PAGASA advisories
PAGASA advisories provide the latest official information on tropical cyclones affecting the Philippines. This bulletin (No. 4) emphasizes ongoing tracking of Paolo, potential landfall zones, and evolving sea and weather conditions. Always refer to the most recent advisory for critical safety instructions and forecasts.
