The latest Politbarometer snapshot
Germany’s current ZDF Politbarometer shows the Union CDU/CSU at 27 percent, ahead of the AfD at 25 percent. The SPD stays at 15 percent, the Greens rise to 11 percent, and both the Left and FDP remain at 11 and 3 percent respectively. Others total 8 percent and the poll does not separate out the BSW. Compared with the previous reading, CDU/CSU gains 1 point while the AfD loses 1 point. Two weeks earlier the AfD had tied the Union with 26 percent.
If the election were held on the coming Sunday, the projected seats would still favor the Union but the gap has narrowed, with the SPD holding steady at 15 percent, the Greens at 11 percent, and the FDP at 3 percent. The political map remains fluid, with a meaningful share of voters undecided or willing to switch preferences before polling day.
What this means for the election landscape
The polling snapshot underscores a tightly contested race between the two leading parties. The Union’s slight edge suggests continued momentum, yet the AfD remains a credible challenger, keeping the race unsettled in the final stretch toward the Bundestag election. Coalition possibilities could shift depending on regional results and the behavior of smaller parties at the ballot box.
Leadership ratings and public confidence
In the ratings of political leadership, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) remains the most trusted figure, averaging a 2.2 on a -5 to +5 scale. Far behind, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU/CSU) sits at 0.9, followed by Cabinet members Bärbel Bas at 0.4 and Lars Klingbeil at 0.4. Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) stands at -0.1, indicating only modest support relative to the top-rated figures.
Worries about the economy and government action
Public optimism about the government’s ability to boost the economy has cooled. Currently, 46 percent believe the government will make a significant contribution to economic growth, while 50 percent disagree. By contrast, at the start of the new government in May, optimism was much higher, with 64 percent expressing confidence and 32 percent expressing skepticism. The shift signals growing concern about the economic outlook and the government’s policy response.
Methodology and context
The figures come from a representative poll of 1,300 randomly selected eligible voters, conducted from September 29 to October 1. Interviews were carried out by phone and online. Like all polls, this Politbarometer reflects opinions at a moment in time and should be interpreted as a snapshot rather than a precise forecast of the election outcome.
