Latest poll results
The latest ZDF Politbarometer shows the Union (CDU/CSU) narrowly ahead of the AfD, continuing a tense, swing voter dynamic in Germany. The CDU/CSU group rises by one percentage point to 27 percent, while the AfD slips by one point to 25 percent. The SPD remains at 15 percent, the Greens gain one point to 11 percent, and Die Linke holds at 11 percent. The FDP remains at 3 percent, and those classified as ‘Other’ rise to 8 percent, up two points.
Two weeks earlier, the AfD had effectively tied the Union at 26 percent, so the current shift underscores how small moves can influence the race’s momentum as the election nears. A potential Bundestag election next Sunday would, at this snapshot, leave the SPD at 15 percent, with the Greens and Linke each at 11 percent and the FDP at 3 percent. The BSW is not shown separately in the release.
What the numbers mean for the parties
For the Union, the small gain reinforces a fragile lead in a race characterized by volatility among voters who are weighing both party loyalty and policy outcomes. The AfD’s retreat by one point narrows the gap, highlighting ongoing sensitivity to campaign issues, public perception of leadership, and electoral fatigue in certain demographics. The SPD’s 15 percent indicates persistent challenges for the governing bloc, while the Greens’ uptick to 11 percent shows that environmental and climate policy remains a mobilizing issue for a share of voters. Die Linke’s unchanged 11 percent suggests a stable base but limited cross-partisan appeal at this stage. The FDP’s 3 percent reaffirms its status as a minor player in a crowded field, while the broader “Other” category’s 8 percent points to continued fragmentation and potential coalition calculations ahead of the vote.
Public mood on the economy
Complicating the election picture is a shift in voters’ confidence about the government’s ability to boost the economy. Only 46 percent now believe the federal government can meaningfully contribute to economic growth, while 50 percent disagree. This marks a notable retreat from May, when a clear majority—64 percent—expressed optimism about the new government’s economic action, with 32 percent skeptical. Analysts see the decline in confidence as a sign that economic concerns—such as inflation, wages, and investment—are influencing voter preferences more than party labels alone.
Implications for the election landscape
Polls like this illustrate how the German political landscape remains unsettled as campaigns intensify. While the Union holds a slim lead over the AfD, the margins are tight enough that small policy shifts, campaign events, or economic developments could realign the balance. The still-significant share of voters who opt for “Other” hints at potential deal-making and fluid coalitional possibilities after the election, particularly if neither of the major blocs can secure a decisive majority.
Methodology and caveats
According to the institute, the Politbarometer is representative of eligible voters. The interviews were conducted from September 29 to October 1, with 1,300 randomly selected voters participating via telephone and online methods. As with all surveys, results reflect a moment in time and are subject to change as parties respond to events and messaging. The researchers also note that changing party attachments and shortening decision horizons can introduce uncertainty into weighting and interpretation.
What to watch next
Observers will be watching whether the Union can convert this modest lead into more durable support as the election approaches. At the same time, any signal that the public doubts the economy’s trajectory could shift voters toward alternative coalitions or third-party options, especially among younger voters and urban demographics. For now, the Politbarometer paints a nuanced picture of a country navigating economic concerns, leadership perception, and a highly competitive electoral field.
