A new Deloitte study analyzing health insurance costs across premium levels and Swiss regions suggests that next year’s premium increases could outpace official projections. The consulting firm, which surveyed 1,300 insured individuals, finds that the official figure of 4.4% does not capture the full picture the costs impose on households.
Key findings from Deloitte’s analysis
According to Deloitte, the increase for the most affordable adult premium in several regions could reach 7.1%, well above the 4.4% headline rate. The analysis also estimates that the monthly premium for the least expensive option will rise by CHF 23. These figures reflect regional differences in how costs are distributed across plans and cantons, not merely the overall health-care expense trend.
Official forecast vs. regional reality
The Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (OFSP) projected in mid-September that premiums would climb by an average of 4.4% in 2026, with the monthly average increasing to CHF 393.30. Deloitte’s granular approach highlights that the average uplift masks substantial regional disparities and more pronounced increases for certain plan tiers. The new analysis calls attention to the fact that health-insurance costs are shaped by policy frameworks as much as by medical costs themselves.
Regional variations across cantons
The Deloitte study pinpoints notable differences between cantons in the lowest-priced market segment for an adult. In the Italian-speaking canton of Ticino, increases can reach as high as CHF 52 per month, while Valais sees about CHF 35 more. In the French-speaking regions, Neuchâtel faces an uptick of around CHF 10, Geneva about CHF 19, and Vaud up to CHF 33.
Conversely, the canton of Zug is the only one showing a decrease: premiums fall by roughly CHF 46 per month, largely due to the canton covering 99% of hospitalisation costs. The regional policy mix thus plays a decisive role in how much households pay each month.
<h2 Implications for households and insurers
Marcel Thom, who oversees insurance at Deloitte Suisse, notes that the financial burden of premiums can’t be understood purely through the lens of rising health costs. The regional policy environment and regulatory conditions clearly drive much of the variation from one canton to another. The study also points to a trend observed over the past nine years: the gap between the most expensive and the cheapest premiums has narrowed, though the remaining distance remains material for many households.
<h2 Consumer behavior and market response
With these increases, a larger share of insured individuals are expected to shop for more affordable options. Deloitte suggests that between 7% and 10% of policyholders could switch providers for 2026, seeking the lowest premiums while maintaining adequate coverage. This dynamic underscores a recurring theme in the Swiss health-insurance market: price sensitivity and the ease of switching plans can exert downward pressure on premium levels in future years.
<h2 Context and outlook
The report echoes a broader truth about health insurance in Switzerland: premium growth is not merely a function of medical cost inflation but is significantly influenced by cantonal arrangements and policy design. While the general trajectory remains upward, the dispersion across cantons means some households could see modest shifts, while others face sharper hikes. Observers will be watching how insurers respond to shifting demand, especially as more consumers actively compare plans and potentially switch to the lowest-cost options.
In summary, Deloitte’s fresh cold-eyed look at premium levels and regional dynamics paints a more nuanced picture than the official forecast. For 2026, Swiss households—especially those in regions with larger increases—may feel the pinch sooner as premium changes ripple through household budgets.
