Market snapshot: EU and US price action
Global grain markets are treading water with a generally bearish tilt, as European prices slide and U.S. crop developments add a layer of caution. On 30 September, Paris MATIF futures for December 2025 traded at a contract low of €186.25/t, underscoring ongoing weakness in European wheat despite some price competitiveness against other origins. At the same time, Chicago wheat futures have slipped to seasonal lows this week after USDA’s quarterly outlook signalled higher production prospects.
Key price movements this week
Wheat and maize in Europe and the United States
European wheat remains unappealing to many importers in a global market where buyers prefer alternatives, and even with improved price competitiveness, demand from buyers like Algeria and Iran helps cap any upside momentum. Paris rapeseed prices also moved lower, slipping below the €470/t support zone and finishing Tuesday’s session at €465.25/t, down €5.75/t from Friday’s close. In the U.S., maize harvesting continues apace, with progress at 18% complete as of 28 September—just behind the five-year average of 19% for the period.
Maize and soybeans
Chicago maize futures and soybean futures have weakened, retracing to August lows as quarterly stock figures underpin expectations of ample supply. The Dec-25 maize price sits around $4.16/bu (€139/t), reflecting the broad risk-off sentiment across grain markets.
Domestic supply and price signals
Closer to home, dried grains remain in a stable range. Dried wheat is trading roughly €215-€220/t depending on the day, while dried barley tends to fetch around €205/t—roughly €10/t less than wheat. Imported maize prices sit in the €212-€215/t band, keeping domestic price dynamics aligned with international trends but still bearing local supply considerations.
Global supply and demand signals
The USDA’s latest quarterly report delivered several surprises. U.S. wheat production was revised higher, with winter wheat output up 3.9% while spring wheat fell 8.3%. Ending stocks for the 2024/25 maize crop were also lifted, signaling more available grain in the pipeline. These signals contribute to a cautious stance among buyers and exporters alike as the harvest season advances.
South America and the Southern Hemisphere outlook
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects the wheat crop to reach about 22 million metric tonnes (MMT), up from previous estimates of 20.5 MMT, with harvest anticipated in November. Meanwhile, Australia is projected to post an above-average crop, reinforcing a generally favorable supply picture for the Southern Hemisphere this season.
Market notes and outlook
On the policy and industry front, no fresh native grain price announcements emerged this week. IFA Grain Committee representatives are set to meet with Tirlan and Dairygold regarding harvest 2025 in the coming week, a reminder that regional pricing and procurement dynamics will continue to shape sentiment as the autumn harvest progresses.
What to watch next
Key factors to monitor include further USDA updates on winter and spring wheat production, shifts in U.S. maize and soybean stock estimates, and any new import demand signals from major buyers in North Africa and the Middle East. Continued price tension between European origins and competing supplies, along with harvest progress reports from the Northern Hemisphere, will influence the near-term trajectory of both wheat and corn markets.
