Grain Market Update — 2 October
As October opens, grain markets show a bearish tilt across both Europe and the United States. European prices remain under pressure, with Paris MATIF Dec-25 futures sliding to a contract low of €186.25/t on 30 September. This soft tone aligns with seasonal expectations and a broad risk-off mood in global markets. In the United States, Chicago wheat futures have also touched seasonal lows following the USDA quarterly report, which pointed to favorable production prospects and growing ending stocks. A similar story is evident in maize and soybeans, where Dec-25 futures have retreated to August-like levels as high quarterly stocks dampen price momentum. The Dec-25 maize price is around $4.16/bu (€139/t).
Importers and price ceilings
European wheat is not the first choice for several major importers currently active in the global market, including Algeria and Iran, despite some improvement in price competitiveness. This cautious demand environment continues to cap potential upside for European origin supplies, reinforcing the prevailing bearish tone for European grains (Agritel).
Rapeseed momentum
Paris rapeseed futures have also come under pressure, slipping below the €470/t support zone that had existed in recent weeks. The Nov-25 contract closed at €465.25/t, down €5.75/t from Friday’s close, signaling continued selling pressure for oilseeds alongside broader grain sentiment.
Domestic and harvest context
Back in the home market, dried prices are largely steady: dried wheat trades in the €215-€220/t range, with dried barley priced a touch lower, roughly €5-€10/t beneath wheat. Imported maize is trading around €212-€215/t. In the field, US maize harvest progress remains modestly behind last year’s pace—18% complete as of 28 September, just shy of the five-year average of 19% — underscoring the still-encouraging yield prospects typical for early autumn.
Global supply and demand dynamics
The USDA’s latest quarterly report highlighted higher-than-expected production and ending stocks for US wheat. Winter wheat production was up 3.9%, while spring wheat declined by 8.3%. For maize, ending stocks for the 2024/25 crop were revised upward, reinforcing the sense of ample supply amid soft domestic demand and export competition. These revisions help explain why prices have struggled to stage a convincing rally despite generally favorable growing conditions in several regions.
Key regional signals
In the Southern Hemisphere, optimism is rising about crops in Argentina and Australia. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange now pegs Argentina’s wheat crop around 22 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 20.5 MMT, with harvest due in November. Australia remains on track for an above-average crop, supported by favorable weather in major grain-producing zones. These developments contribute to a global supply backdrop that favors pressure on prices in the near term unless demand picks up or weather shocks alter outlooks.
What this means for participants
For buyers, the current price trajectory suggests continued caution and prudent hedging, especially for European-origin supplies facing modest price improvements. For farmers, the blend of robust global inventories and steady harvest progress argues for disciplined risk management and monitoring of USDA and regional reports, which could shift sentiment if stock levels or demand forecasts adjust. In the near term, the market will likely hinge on demand signals from North Africa and the Middle East, as well as any fresh weather surprises in key growing regions. The IFA Grain Committee’s forthcoming meeting with Tirlan and Dairygold on harvest 2025 could provide additional guidance as producers prepare for the next marketing cycle.
