What is the CORE model?
A new risk-prediction tool called CORE has been developed to help primary care. It uses information from three simple blood tests that are already collected in routine checkups to estimate a patient’s ten-year risk of developing serious liver problems, including cirrhosis, liver cancer, or the need for a liver transplant. By translating common laboratory results into a clear risk score, CORE aims to give family doctors and other frontline clinicians a practical way to identify those who may benefit from closer monitoring or early intervention.
Why primary care needs a tool like CORE
Liver disease is becoming more common, and its prognosis worsens when diagnoses come late. The CORE model was designed specifically for the setting where most patients first seek care: primary care clinics. As Rickard Strandberg, an affiliated researcher at the Department of Medicine, Huddinge, Karolinska Institutet, notes, the method provides a way to predict who will develop disease within ten years based on routine tests. The goal is not to replace clinical judgment, but to augment it with an evidence-based risk estimate that can trigger timely referrals for further testing, lifestyle interventions, or specialist evaluation.
How CORE works in practice
The core idea behind CORE is simplicity. Three standard blood tests feed into a predictive algorithm that outputs a person’s ten-year risk for severe liver disease. Because these tests are already part of regular healthcare workflows, integrating CORE into day-to-day practice could be straightforward. Clinicians can use the risk estimate to stratify patients, focusing attention on those at higher risk while avoiding unnecessary investigations in lower-risk individuals.
Potential impact on outcomes and health systems
Early identification of those at greatest risk can fundamentally change outcomes for liver disease. When liver conditions are detected before symptoms appear, patients have more options for intervention—ranging from lifestyle modification to earlier imaging, targeted therapies, or transplant planning. In systems where resources are finite, CORE could help prioritize high-risk patients, potentially reducing the number of late-stage diagnoses and associated treatment costs.
Next steps and ongoing research
While the initial concept is promising, broader validation is required to ensure accuracy across diverse populations and healthcare settings. Future studies will assess how well CORE performs outside the initial discovery group, refine calibration for different demographic groups, and explore integration with electronic health record systems. If results hold, CORE could become a routine component of primary care, guiding conversations about liver health and preventive strategies long before overt disease develops.
About the researchers
The CORE model reflects collaborative work from researchers at Karolinska Institutet, with leadership and input from clinicians who recognize the need for practical, early-detection tools in everyday medical practice. The approach aligns with a broader push toward precision prevention in liver health, leveraging existing tests to unlock new insights without adding patient burden.
