Overview: End of Habagat in October
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on Monday, September 29, that the southwest monsoon, commonly known as Habagat, is forecast to weaken in the coming weeks. This decline marks a gradual transition toward the Northeast Monsoon season, bringing notable changes in rainfall patterns and winds across the country as October approaches.
What are Habagat and the Northeast Monsoon?
Habagat refers to the southwest monsoon system that typically brings heavy rains to parts of the Philippines during the mid-year months, especially to western regions. In contrast, the Northeast Monsoon—often called the Amihan—brings cooler, drier air from the northeast and tends to dominate rainfall patterns in eastern areas. The shift between these seasonal systems usually occurs as the country moves closer to the tail end of the rainy season and into the northeast-dominated period.
PAGASA forecast and its timing
PAGASA’s latest update suggests that Habagat will gradually weaken over the coming weeks, signaling a slow tilt toward the Northeast Monsoon. While October is likely to be a transition month, not all regions will experience immediate drops or dramatic changes in rainfall. Some western areas may still see temporary spells of rain as residual moisture dissipates, while eastern zones could begin to feel the effects of the drying NE winds earlier in the season.
Regional impacts to expect
The waning Habagat usually brings a shift in rainfall distribution across the archipelago. Western provinces, which often bear the brunt of Habagat’s rain, may experience a decrease in intensity as the monsoon weakens. Conversely, eastern and northern areas might begin to experience the softer, more erratic rainfall patterns associated with the Northeast Monsoon. Fisherfolk and farmers should monitor local advisories, as sudden changes in wind direction and rainfall can affect fishing, planting schedules, and harvest timing.
Implications for agriculture and travel
A changing monsoon pattern can influence crop calendars, especially for crops sensitive to rainfall variability. Farmers may need to adjust planting windows, irrigation plans, and drainage preparations as conditions shift. For travelers and commuters, expect gradual changes in weather: more variability, with drier spells interspersed with brief wet periods as the transition unfolds. Local weather alerts should be followed closely during the October changeover.
Preparing for the transition
Residents should stay informed through PAGASA weather updates and local advisories. Basic preparedness steps include securing loose items outdoors, checking drainage and flood-prone areas, and planning activities around the forecast. Communities should review contingency plans for heavy rain events and ensure drainage systems are functional to mitigate possible flash flooding during the transition period.
Conclusion: A seasonal shift on the horizon
The anticipated weakening of Habagat in October signals the Philippine climate’s gradual move toward the Northeast Monsoon regime. While the transition may be gradual and regionally varied, awareness of the changing monsoon pattern helps households, farmers, and travelers adapt proactively. As PAGASA continues to monitor atmospheric conditions, continued updates will clarify the pace and regional impacts of this seasonal shift.
