PAGASA forecast: Habagat weakens, signaling monsoon shift
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced on Monday, September 29, that the southwest monsoon, locally known as habagat, is expected to weaken in the coming weeks. This gradual decline points to a transition toward the northeast monsoon, or amihan, which typically dominates the late-year weather pattern. While the shift is anticipated to unfold through October and into the dry season, forecasters caution that local rain events and lingering systems can still affect various regions as the monsoon flow adjusts.
What the shift means for rainfall and weather across the Philippines
During habagat, rainfall tends to concentrate on western Luzon and the western Visayas, with heavier downpours possible along coastal areas. As the habagat weakens, those broad, monsoon-driven rainfall patterns can ease in some western areas, while eastern regions may experience different weather due to lingering troughs or passing tropical systems. The changeover is not instantaneous; instead, it unfolds through October as winds begin to swing more from the northeast. Expect cooler mornings and a gradual drop in humidity in many parts of the country as amihan strengthens.
Regional impacts
Coastal communities along western provinces may notice a drying trend as habagat wanes, potentially reducing routine heavy rainfall events. However, flood-prone basins and urban drainage areas can still see localized rains, especially if a tropical cyclone approaches, or if residual monsoon moisture interacts with developing weather systems. Eastern and northern areas should monitor updates for possible shifts in wind direction and precipitation, which can influence agriculture, travel, and daily planning.
October and beyond: planning for the transition
The transition from habagat to amihan typically brings a period of adjustment. While the northeast monsoon brings cooler air and crisper mornings, it can also bring periods of dry weather paired with occasional cold fronts that influence rainfall in some regions. Forecasters expect amihan-like conditions to become more pronounced in the weeks ahead, with wind direction and temperature gradually trending toward the northeast. This shift can alter crop calendars, irrigation schedules, and energy demand, as communities adapt to changing rainfall rhythms and drier spells in many areas.
Tips for residents and travelers
To stay prepared, keep an eye on PAGASA bulletins and your local weather advisories. Clear drainage systems, check for flood-prone spots near homes or workplaces, and secure loose outdoor items ahead of any heavy rain events. Farmers and fisherfolk should adjust crop calendars and fishing schedules in line with evolving rainfall patterns as October progresses. For travelers, plan with the possibility of shifting rain spells and cooler mornings, particularly in higher elevations or northern provinces where temperatures can feel noticeably cooler during amihan.
