Overview
Researchers at Karolinska Institutet have developed a simple blood analysis that may predict the risk of developing a serious liver disease within ten years. The test is designed for use in primary care, with the goal of spotting people at high risk for cirrhosis and liver cancer before symptoms appear. In initial studies, the method generates a personal risk score from a panel of blood-based markers, potentially augmented by standard demographic and clinical information. If further validation confirms these findings across diverse populations, the test could be integrated into routine health checks in clinics, enabling early intervention and closer monitoring for those at highest risk.
How the test works
The exact markers and algorithm are described in the researchers’ publications, but the approach centers on measuring liver-related biomarkers such as indicators of fibrosis, inflammation, and liver function, combined with metabolic and demographic data. The result is a quantified risk estimate for developing severe liver disease within ten years. Importantly, the test is designed to use standard blood samples already drawn during ordinary check-ups, making it feasible to implement without major changes to current practice.
Why this matters in primary care
Early identification of people at elevated risk can shift care from reactive treatment to proactive monitoring and prevention. In primary care, physicians could use the risk score to tailor follow-up intervals, order imaging studies or viral hepatitis screening when indicated, and support patients in reducing modifiable risks such as excessive alcohol use, obesity, or diabetes. Detecting cirrhosis and liver cancer earlier can improve treatment options and survival.
Validation and next steps
While promising, the new blood test requires extensive validation in different patient groups and health systems. Researchers will assess performance across age ranges, geographic regions, and populations with varying risk factors. Regulators will also evaluate cost-effectiveness and integration with existing care pathways. If successful, clinics may adopt the test as part of standard preventive care, with guidelines to manage high-risk individuals and ensure appropriate follow-up and support.
In addition, experts emphasize that a risk score is not a diagnosis. It signals who may benefit from further evaluation, such as imaging or biopsy, and should be used with patient consent and privacy safeguards. Ongoing research will also explore how lifestyle interventions, vaccination, and medical management can reduce the ultimate risk for liver disease.
What this means for patients
For patients, this test represents a potential shift toward prevention-based liver health. People with risk factors—such as long-standing obesity, diabetes, hepatitis infection, or heavy alcohol use—could face a yearly or biennial risk assessment as part of routine visits. Even if you are currently healthy, discussing liver health with your clinician and maintaining a healthy lifestyle remain important. The most effective approach combines risk assessment with vaccination where relevant, screening for hepatitis, and management of metabolic conditions to reduce long-term liver disease risk.
