Overview: PAS Leads as Ballots Continue Counting
With more than 75 percent of the votes tallied, Moldova’s pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) is leading the parliamentary elections, securing roughly 44 percent of the vote. The race is far from decided, as the pro-Russian Patriotic Bloc trails at about 28 percent. As more ballots are counted, the PAS advantage appears to widen, but the final composition of Moldova’s parliament will hinge on the judgment of the remaining ballots—particularly those cast by the Moldovan diaspora abroad, which historically lean pro-European and are often among the last to be tallied.
The Bigger Question: What These Results Mean for Moldova
Four years ago, PAS won an outright majority, dating to Maia Sandu’s presidency and the party’s promise of closer European integration. The EU-friendly optimism faced headwinds in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a referendum on embedding EU integration into Moldova’s constitution passed by a narrow margin. The latest tally underscores the enduring pull of European alignment for many voters, even as the country navigates regional security pressures and economic challenges.
Diaspora Votes: The Final Piece of the Puzzle
Historically, Moldovan voters living abroad have favored EU-oriented parties. The diaspora postal and in-person ballots are often counted last, and those results can shift the final balance in tight races. As more diaspora votes come in, observers expect a potential shift in margins that could influence coalition negotiations and post-election strategies.
Disinformation, External Influence, and Electoral Integrity
Disinformation campaigns have been a feature of Moldova’s electoral landscape for years. In the lead-up to these elections, Moscow has been accused of attempting to influence the outcome through messaging and funding channels, a claim underscored by Ukrainian intelligence estimates of hundreds of millions in support directed toward pro-Russian actors. In response, electoral authorities moved to exclude two pro-Russian parties suspected of Kremlin links, a decision framed by some as safeguarding the election’s integrity while others view it as political maneuvering. The result is a highly charged environment where information warfare and real-world security concerns intersect with everyday political choices.
<h2 Security Incidents at the Ballot Box
Across the Moldovan and international vote locations, authorities recorded a spate of irregularities and security alerts. Bomb-threats were reported at polling sites abroad, including in Romania, Spain, the United States, and Belgium, with Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleging Russian involvement. Within Moldova, some precincts opened either late or too early, some ballot boxes were not properly sealed, and voting booths were mispositioned in a few locations. While these issues did not appear to have a uniform impact, they have added to concerns about the election’s reliability and the way it is conducted in a tense geopolitical climate.
What Comes Next: Moldova’s EU Path and Possible Scenarios
The central question remaining is whether Moldova will secure a governing coalition that champions EU accession or whether eurosceptic and pro-Russian actors will gain disproportionate influence. If PAS holds a dominant share but falls short of an outright majority, coalition talks will determine the government’s direction on reforms, anti-corruption measures, and EU-related policy. The exclusion of pro-Kremlin parties and the continued emphasis on Western integration would likely advance Moldova’s EU trajectory, though concrete steps—such as treaty alignments and reform timetables—depend on parliamentary arithmetic and cross-party negotiations.
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Analysts anticipate several avenues: a PAS-led coalition with liberal or centrist forces, a broader pro-European bloc seeking stability, or a more fragmented parliament requiring compromise with smaller parties. Each path carries different timelines for advancing EU membership talks, security cooperation, and economic reforms that international partners are watching closely.
Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Moldova
As Moldova moves beyond the initial vote tally, the outcome will shape not only domestic governance but the country’s broader alignment in Europe and its posture toward Russia. The coming weeks of coalition talks, legal approvals, and verified results will determine whether Moldova steers decisively toward EU integration or navigates a more uncertain, multi-vector political landscape.
