Moldova at a crossroads
In a week where European security figures prominently at the United Nations, Moldova sits at the sharp end of a broader contest between Moscow and Brussels. President Volodymyr Zelenskyj warned in New York that Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova as a neighbor, underscoring how the outcome of Sunday’s parliamentary vote could have implications far beyond a small country with a struggling economy.
Moldova is one of Europe’s poorest states by GDP per capita, with income levels well below those of Western peers—less than one-tenth of Norway’s per-person output, according to recent estimates. It is also a frontline in a hybrid war that blends traditional pressure with information warfare, disinformation campaigns, and political influence operations designed to tilt the country toward or away from the European Union.
Russia’s hybrid playbook in plain sight
The Kremlin’s approach in Moldova mirrors its broader strategy elsewhere: exploit existing tensions between Romanian-speaking and Russian-speaking communities, between EU-leaning elites and those nostalgic for the Soviet era, and between the capital, Chișinău, and the rest of the country where living standards lag behind the EU’s pace. Transnistria, the breakaway region near the eastern border, remains a de facto Russian-occupied zone since the 1990s, a constant reminder of Russia’s ability to project power without full-scale invasion.
Across the country, Russian money has flowed in for influence and propaganda efforts, according to Western observers. Citizens have been paid to participate in protests and to vote for candidates aligned with Moscow. As Moldova prepares to choose its next leadership, two pro-Russian parties have been barred by the election commission, raising the temperature on what is expected to be a highly contested day. One party publicly offered tens of thousands of kroner per month to join protests—a reminder of how financial incentives are used to shape political outcomes in fragile states.
Domestic fault lines, international stakes
Maia Sandu, Moldova’s pro-European president, has consistently warned that Moscow aims to influence the vote through tens to hundreds of millions of dollars, seeking to tilt Moldova toward a pro-Russian posture. The concern isn’t limited to outright victory on polling day; it extends to long-term influence over Moldova’s political class, media landscape, and civil society. The fear is that destabilization could derail the country’s EU aspirations and complicate European security in the region.
National authorities conducted nationwide raids earlier in the week, arresting 74 people accused of planning mass unrest. Security officials attribute these efforts to Kremlin-backed efforts to destabilize the country and deter pro-European mobilization. In this charged environment, Moldova’s political discourse is a battleground for the future direction of the country: closer European integration or renewed Russian influence.
The diaspora and the hidden ballot
A large share of Moldova’s citizens live abroad—estimates place the foreign-born/Moldovan community in the tens of thousands. Moscow has shown interest in mobilizing this diaspora to influence the vote from abroad, a tactic that can have outsized effects in a country with a population of about 3.6 million. The challenge for Moldova’s authorities is to ensure a fair process that respects the will of its citizens no matter where they cast their ballots.
What this means for Europe
EU leaders have stressed that stability in Moldova matters for the wider European project. Zelensky’s assertion that Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova reflects concerns that a pro-Russian turn could embolden Moscow’s bid to redraw Europe’s eastern flank. For Moldova, a pro-European outcome would not only advance EU accession prospects but also anchor the country more firmly in democratic norms, economic reforms, and energy diversification—areas where Brussels has long urged sustained progress.
What to watch on election day
Observers will monitor whether the vote proceeds peacefully and transparently, given the highly polarized environment and foreign interference concerns. The election commission’s decision to disqualify certain pro-Russian groups adds to the sense that Moldova’s future path could hinge on small swings in a tightly contested political landscape. The international community’s response in the days after the polls will signal whether European support remains steady or faces new tests as Moldova navigates the pressure from Moscow and the lure of European integration.
