Beirut Rally and the Alleged Death
Tens of thousands gathered in Beirut on a Saturday to honor a charismatic leader reportedly killed in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, 2024. The crowd’s mood reflected a mix of grief, defiance, and political calculation, underscoring how deeply Hezbollah still anchors itself in Lebanon’s volatile landscape. It is important to note that independent confirmation of the leader’s death was not immediately available, and reports varied in their details in the hours and days after the strike.
Within this charged atmosphere, the movement’s leadership tried to project continuity. In a televised address to the crowd on Beirut’s outskirts, Naim Qassem—one of Hezbollah’s most prominent figures—stressed unwavering resolve. “We never abandon our weapons, nor will we refrain from using them. We are ready for martyrdom.” The message linked a legacy of deterrence with a willingness to confront mounting political and military pressure from regional rivals and some international actors.
Disarmament as a Policy Dilemma
The Lebanese state has repeatedly demanded a path toward disarmament of Hezbollah, arguing that a formal demilitarization is essential for the country’s stability and sovereignty. Israel has likewise pressed for disarmament, framing it as a precondition for broader regional security. Yet the practical mechanics of such a disarmament are unclear, and most observers agree that Lebanon’s own institutions—particularly the army—face serious capacity gaps that complicate any attempt to enforce a dissolution of Hezbollah’s armed wing.
Beirut has historically found itself navigating a delicate balance: maintaining state authority while accommodating a powerful political-military actor that commands significant social services networks, a wide militia, and deep cross-border ties. Analysts point to the gap between official policy rhetoric and on-the-ground realities, noting that any attempt at disarmament would require international backing, robust security guarantees, and a credible alternative for the movement’s supporters.
International and Regional Context
Since the 1990s, Hezbollah has been a focal point of regional tensions, with several countries designating the group as a terrorist organization in full, while others—including the European Union—have targeted only its armed wing. The question of disarmament sits within this broader legal and diplomatic framework, complicating efforts to broker a peaceful solution that satisfies both Lebanese sovereignty concerns and Israel’s security interests.
The Israeli government continues to articulate a demand for Hezbollah’s disarmament, citing ongoing cross-border incidents and ceasefire violations. In parallel, the Lebanese presidency and army leadership—led by General Joseph Aoun in some formulations of the discussion—have been presented as key actors in any effort to redefine Hezbollah’s role within the state. Most outsiders, however, view the task as exceptionally challenging given Hezbollah’s entrenched political legitimacy, social services infrastructure, and military capabilities.
Military Realities and Political Consequences
Even as Hezbollah remains a major political force in Lebanon, the group’s military footprint complicates the country’s security calculus. Analysts warn that the military’s capacity to enforce disarmament could be limited, raising the likelihood that any significant change would depend on a broader regional and international settlement, including guarantees for Lebanon’s stability and for the movement’s supporters who view the group as a guardian against external threats.
In the eyes of many Lebanese citizens, the question is not only about weapons but about legitimacy, governance, and the country’s future. The Beirut rally—whether or not it signals a real tactical shift—illustrates how Hezbollah’s survival strategy continues to hinge on a mix of political accommodation, social welfare networks, and a demonstrated readiness to confront external pressures.
What Comes Next
Looking ahead, the road to any credible disarmament framework remains uncertain. It will likely involve a complex mix of domestic reform, international diplomacy, and a redefined role for Hezbollah within Lebanon’s hybrid political system. For now, the group’s leadership has signaled a steadfast stance, while government and international actors weigh the risks of prolonged tension against the prospects of a negotiated settlement.
