Introduction to Israeli Politics
The political landscape in Israel is continually evolving, with recent developments stirring up discussions among analysts and observers. A notable event this week was the announcement by former Knesset member Gadi Eisenkot regarding his new political party. Professor Asher Cohen from Bar-Ilan University’s political science department shared his insights on this move, shedding light on the complexities within the Israeli political arena.
The Emergence of New Parties
Professor Cohen views Eisenkot’s party as a continuation of a trend in the center-left bloc, which he characterizes as dominated by personal parties. “If we strip away the individual leader in these parties, is there a party left? Think of leaders like Lieberman, Gantz, Eisenkot, or Bennett,” he posits. This mirrors a broader issue within the center-left, where leadership often overshadows party ideology and structure.
Comparing Political Parties
Cohen contrasts these personal parties with more established entities like Likud, which has demonstrated institutional resilience even after the departure of prominent leaders such as Menachem Begin. He challenges the ideological distinctions that are often overstated among leaders in the center-left bloc, asserting that if one were to ask an average person about the differences between Eisenkot and Gantz, a coherent answer would be hard to come by.
The Real Motivations Behind New Initiatives
Deep down, Cohen argues that Eisenkot’s motives may align more with personal ambition than a significant ideological shift. “The bottom line is a likely attempt to elevate his standing—previously as Gantz’s number two, he aims for a leading position,” Cohen states. Without robust polling support, Eisenkot’s aspirations of becoming a prominent figure may remain in jeopardy.
Electoral Stability vs. Volatility
Moreover, Professor Cohen challenges the prevailing narrative of electoral volatility, claiming that approximately 110 Knesset seats have already firmly aligned with their blocs, leaving only about 10 seats undecided. He questions the credibility of polls indicating significant shifts between blocs, suggesting, “No one shifts 20 mandates from one bloc to another in Israel. It never has happened and likely never will.”
Understanding Voter Dynamics
Cohen highlights the limitations of pre-election polls and advocates for a more nuanced understanding of voter sentiment. He emphasizes that expressing dissatisfaction in a survey differs markedly from actual voting behavior, where individuals make concrete decisions through their ballots.
Challenges Within Political Camps
The real challenge, according to him, is not about swaying public opinion at large, but addressing internal dilemmas within each coalition. For the center-left, a crucial task looms large: achieving a Knesset majority of 61 seats without reliance on Arab parties, a goal that currently seems unattainable.
The National Camp’s Identity Crisis
In contrast, Cohen points out that the national camp faces an identity challenge. While the majority of the public may identify as right-leaning, many voters, such as kibbutz members, may resist aligning themselves with parties like Likud or Smotrich, further complicating voter loyalty and party support.
Rethinking Political Structures
When addressing ongoing changes in party structures, Cohen presents a surprising viewpoint regarding the recent trend of parties aiming to consolidate power with leaders at the expense of central committees. Citing the Likud as an example, he suggests that the need for broad outreach might lead to sensationalism as parties prepare for primaries.
Conclusion: A Nuanced Perspective
In the midst of pessimistic narratives surrounding Israeli politics, Cohen offers a refreshing perspective. He cites recent statistics revealing that 91% of Israelis express satisfaction with their lives, suggesting a disconnect between public sentiment and media portrayals. As the political landscape continues to shift, understanding nuances will be key to navigating the complex realities of Israel’s democracy.
