Introduction to Current Political Dynamics
In a recent interview with Channel 7, Professor Asher Cohen from Bar-Ilan University’s political science department provided a profound analysis of Israel’s political landscape, particularly in light of former MK Gadi Eisenkot’s announcement to form a new party. This development has stirred significant reactions, but Cohen believes it won’t drastically alter the political arena.
The Emergence of Personal Parties
Prof. Cohen emphasizes that Eisenkot’s party exemplifies a growing trend within the center-left bloc: the rise of personal parties. He asserts, “If you take the leader out of these parties, is there really a party left?” This observation highlights the reliance on charismatic leaders like Lieberman, Gantz, Eisenkot, and Bennett instead of institutional strength.
Institutional Resilience vs. Personal Appeal
In contrast to these personal-oriented parties, Cohen contrasts them with the Likud party, which has demonstrated institutional resilience even after notable leaders like Menachem Begin departed. He questions the ideological substance behind these personal movements, suggesting that many voters wouldn’t be able to differentiate between Eisenkot and Gantz in a meaningful way.
The Motivation Behind Eisenkot’s Move
Cohen posits that Eisenkot’s primary motivation for establishing a new party is to elevate his political status. “The point here is, in my opinion, a desire to connect with the number one position. He was number two under Gantz. If his party doesn’t appear strong in polls, he can’t demand to be number one elsewhere. He will simply find himself as number two in a different scenario,” he explains.
The Stability of Electoral Preferences
Challenging the notion of significant electoral fluctuations, Cohen points out that most voters have already aligned themselves with a particular bloc. He mentions that approximately 110 mandates are firmly decided, leaving only about ten mandates undecided. This perspective casts doubt on polls that indicate major shifts between political blocs.
The Role of Polls and Electoral Behavior
Cohen explains that polls taken far from election day do not accurately reflect real electoral behavior. He argues that while individuals may express dissatisfaction in polls, this is different from the act of voting. The real challenge for any political camp, he contends, lies in addressing internal dilemmas rather than convincing the masses.
The Central-Left’s Existential Challenge
The center-left faces a vital issue: how to reach 61 mandates without the support of Arab parties, a scenario that Cohen believes is unrealistic. In contrast, the national camp faces its own identity struggle, with a significant portion of the public leaning right but lacking a suitable party that resonates with their views.
The Future of Party Leadership
When discussing the trend of parties reclaiming power for leaders at the expense of their central committees, particularly in the Religious Zionist party, Cohen shares a surprising stance. He argues, “Primaries are not such a beneficial system,” suggesting that the requirement for extensive voter outreach can lead to sensationalism and provocations, particularly as primaries approach.
Reflections on Political Sentiment
Despite the prevalent narrative of a dire political climate, Cohen rejects the idea that these are the worst days in Israeli politics. He notes the human tendency to idealize the past, pointing to recent data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showing that 91% of people in Israel are satisfied with their lives. “How can this be in a country with so many challenges?” he asks, highlighting a disconnect between public sentiment and media portrayals.
Conclusion
In summary, Prof. Asher Cohen’s insights offer a nuanced understanding of the current political landscape in Israel. His analysis raises crucial questions about the nature of political parties, voter behavior, and public sentiment, challenging commonly held beliefs about the volatility of electoral preferences.
